Trader consensus currently assigns roughly 20% implied probability to a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with zero hurricanes formed by mid-September and official National Hurricane Center summaries showing suppressed activity well below climatological norms. Seismic monitoring from the USGS indicates no events exceeding magnitude 7.8 this year, consistent with the low historical frequency of 8.5+ quakes. Volcanic observatories report ongoing activity at sites such as Kīlauea and Anak Krakatau, but none have reached VEI 6. With limited time remaining and no active alerts meeting resolution thresholds, these conditions sustain the elevated probability for “No.”
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
21% 機率
$246,803 交易量
$246,803 交易量
2026-12-31
是
21% 機率
$246,803 交易量
$246,803 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus currently assigns roughly 20% implied probability to a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with zero hurricanes formed by mid-September and official National Hurricane Center summaries showing suppressed activity well below climatological norms. Seismic monitoring from the USGS indicates no events exceeding magnitude 7.8 this year, consistent with the low historical frequency of 8.5+ quakes. Volcanic observatories report ongoing activity at sites such as Kīlauea and Anak Krakatau, but none have reached VEI 6. With limited time remaining and no active alerts meeting resolution thresholds, these conditions sustain the elevated probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$246,803結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus currently assigns roughly 20% implied probability to a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with zero hurricanes formed by mid-September and official National Hurricane Center summaries showing suppressed activity well below climatological norms. Seismic monitoring from the USGS indicates no events exceeding magnitude 7.8 this year, consistent with the low historical frequency of 8.5+ quakes. Volcanic observatories report ongoing activity at sites such as Kīlauea and Anak Krakatau, but none have reached VEI 6. With limited time remaining and no active alerts meeting resolution thresholds, these conditions sustain the elevated probability for “No.”
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$246,803結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETTrader consensus currently assigns roughly 20% implied probability to a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with zero hurricanes formed by mid-September and official National Hurricane Center summaries showing suppressed activity well below climatological norms. Seismic monitoring from the USGS indicates no events exceeding magnitude 7.8 this year, consistent with the low historical frequency of 8.5+ quakes. Volcanic observatories report ongoing activity at sites such as Kīlauea and Anak Krakatau, but none have reached VEI 6. With limited time remaining and no active alerts meeting resolution thresholds, these conditions sustain the elevated probability for “No.”
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions