Trader consensus for no natural disaster in 2026 at 74% stems from the lack of major events through mid-year and stable global climate indicators. Observational data from agencies like NOAA and the USGS show typical seasonal patterns without extreme temperature anomalies, precipitation deficits, or seismic activity exceeding historical baselines for this period. ENSO-neutral conditions continue to limit intensification risks for tropical systems, while long-range models project moderate variability rather than outliers. Resolution criteria for such markets generally require events surpassing average annual frequencies, and upcoming seasonal forecasts in the coming months will provide clearer signals on whether conditions shift.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$218,685 交易量
$218,685 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$218,685 交易量
$218,685 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus for no natural disaster in 2026 at 74% stems from the lack of major events through mid-year and stable global climate indicators. Observational data from agencies like NOAA and the USGS show typical seasonal patterns without extreme temperature anomalies, precipitation deficits, or seismic activity exceeding historical baselines for this period. ENSO-neutral conditions continue to limit intensification risks for tropical systems, while long-range models project moderate variability rather than outliers. Resolution criteria for such markets generally require events surpassing average annual frequencies, and upcoming seasonal forecasts in the coming months will provide clearer signals on whether conditions shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$218,685結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus for no natural disaster in 2026 at 74% stems from the lack of major events through mid-year and stable global climate indicators. Observational data from agencies like NOAA and the USGS show typical seasonal patterns without extreme temperature anomalies, precipitation deficits, or seismic activity exceeding historical baselines for this period. ENSO-neutral conditions continue to limit intensification risks for tropical systems, while long-range models project moderate variability rather than outliers. Resolution criteria for such markets generally require events surpassing average annual frequencies, and upcoming seasonal forecasts in the coming months will provide clearer signals on whether conditions shift.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$218,685結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus for no natural disaster in 2026 at 74% stems from the lack of major events through mid-year and stable global climate indicators. Observational data from agencies like NOAA and the USGS show typical seasonal patterns without extreme temperature anomalies, precipitation deficits, or seismic activity exceeding historical baselines for this period. ENSO-neutral conditions continue to limit intensification risks for tropical systems, while long-range models project moderate variability rather than outliers. Resolution criteria for such markets generally require events surpassing average annual frequencies, and upcoming seasonal forecasts in the coming months will provide clearer signals on whether conditions shift.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions