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政治·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
政治·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 49%

Petro - Colombia President 20%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$367,449 交易量

Starmer - UK PM 49%

Petro - Colombia President 20%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.2%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President 2.1%

Polymarket

$367,449 交易量

Starmer - UK PM

$21,885 交易量

49%

Petro - Colombia President

$20,449 交易量

20%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$12,135 交易量

8%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$21,799 交易量

2%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,621 交易量

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$16,154 交易量

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$17,125 交易量

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$16,116 交易量

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,679 交易量

1%

None before 2027

$19,128 交易量

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,495 交易量

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,743 交易量

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$13,158 交易量

<1%

Macron - France President

$12,204 交易量

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,266 交易量

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,850 交易量

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,675 交易量

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,418 交易量

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,264 交易量

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,504 交易量

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,235 交易量

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,930 交易量

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,335 交易量

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,281 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer faces the greatest immediate risk of early departure among listed leaders, driven by recent Labour Party setbacks in local elections, multiple cabinet resignations, and open calls from dozens of MPs for a leadership transition timeline. These developments have intensified scrutiny of his governance amid low approval ratings and internal party divisions, positioning him as the frontrunner in trader assessments of removal before 2027. Gustavo Petro ranks second as Colombia's presidential term concludes in 2026 following scheduled elections, despite a recent rebound in his approval ratings near 47 percent. Other figures such as Miguel Díaz-Canel, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Claudia Sheinbaum register lower probabilities due to more stable institutional positions or longer expected tenures, with limited recent catalysts to alter their standing in the market's implied consensus.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$367,449
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer faces the greatest immediate risk of early departure among listed leaders, driven by recent Labour Party setbacks in local elections, multiple cabinet resignations, and open calls from dozens of MPs for a leadership transition timeline. These developments have intensified scrutiny of his governance amid low approval ratings and internal party divisions, positioning him as the frontrunner in trader assessments of removal before 2027. Gustavo Petro ranks second as Colombia's presidential term concludes in 2026 following scheduled elections, despite a recent rebound in his approval ratings near 47 percent. Other figures such as Miguel Díaz-Canel, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Claudia Sheinbaum register lower probabilities due to more stable institutional positions or longer expected tenures, with limited recent catalysts to alter their standing in the market's implied consensus.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$367,449
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Starmer - UK PM" at 49%, followed by "Petro - Colombia President" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" has generated $367.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" is "Starmer - UK PM" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Petro - Colombia President" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.