**Multiple partial outages already logged in early June 2026 have positioned the 4+ outage days outcome as the market leader at 51.5% implied probability.** OpenAI’s status page records disruptions on several days including June 1–3, 6–9, and 11, with incidents such as elevated 431 errors and service availability issues affecting free and paid tiers. These brief but countable events align with ChatGPT’s pattern of intermittent latency or partial downtime even when overall uptime remains high (99.83% for the ChatGPT service through mid-June). Traders view the current tally as sufficient to make four or more days the baseline expectation, especially given OpenAI’s rapid scaling of large language model traffic and periodic infrastructure strain. The 2-day (27.0%) and 3-day (18.5%) options trail because additional incidents would be needed to reach them, while sub-2 days sits near zero. No major new disruptions have surfaced since June 11, but the remaining half of the month leaves room for further volatility before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4+ 52%
3 24%
2 21%
<2 <1%
$10,307 交易量
$10,307 交易量
2026-06-30
<2
<1%
2
27%
3
19%
4+
52%
4+ 52%
3 24%
2 21%
<2 <1%
$10,307 交易量
$10,307 交易量
2026-06-30
<2
$5,707 交易量
<1%
2
$650 交易量
27%
3
$432 交易量
19%
4+
$3,518 交易量
52%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Multiple partial outages already logged in early June 2026 have positioned the 4+ outage days outcome as the market leader at 51.5% implied probability.** OpenAI’s status page records disruptions on several days including June 1–3, 6–9, and 11, with incidents such as elevated 431 errors and service availability issues affecting free and paid tiers. These brief but countable events align with ChatGPT’s pattern of intermittent latency or partial downtime even when overall uptime remains high (99.83% for the ChatGPT service through mid-June).
Traders view the current tally as sufficient to make four or more days the baseline expectation, especially given OpenAI’s rapid scaling of large language model traffic and periodic infrastructure strain. The 2-day (27.0%) and 3-day (18.5%) options trail because additional incidents would be needed to reach them, while sub-2 days sits near zero. No major new disruptions have surfaced since June 11, but the remaining half of the month leaves room for further volatility before resolution.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ET
交易量
$10,307結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Multiple partial outages already logged in early June 2026 have positioned the 4+ outage days outcome as the market leader at 51.5% implied probability.** OpenAI’s status page records disruptions on several days including June 1–3, 6–9, and 11, with incidents such as elevated 431 errors and service availability issues affecting free and paid tiers. These brief but countable events align with ChatGPT’s pattern of intermittent latency or partial downtime even when overall uptime remains high (99.83% for the ChatGPT service through mid-June).
Traders view the current tally as sufficient to make four or more days the baseline expectation, especially given OpenAI’s rapid scaling of large language model traffic and periodic infrastructure strain. The 2-day (27.0%) and 3-day (18.5%) options trail because additional incidents would be needed to reach them, while sub-2 days sits near zero. No major new disruptions have surfaced since June 11, but the remaining half of the month leaves room for further volatility before resolution.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$10,307結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 6:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Multiple partial outages already logged in early June 2026 have positioned the 4+ outage days outcome as the market leader at 51.5% implied probability.** OpenAI’s status page records disruptions on several days including June 1–3, 6–9, and 11, with incidents such as elevated 431 errors and service availability issues affecting free and paid tiers. These brief but countable events align with ChatGPT’s pattern of intermittent latency or partial downtime even when overall uptime remains high (99.83% for the ChatGPT service through mid-June). Traders view the current tally as sufficient to make four or more days the baseline expectation, especially given OpenAI’s rapid scaling of large language model traffic and periodic infrastructure strain. The 2-day (27.0%) and 3-day (18.5%) options trail because additional incidents would be needed to reach them, while sub-2 days sits near zero. No major new disruptions have surfaced since June 11, but the remaining half of the month leaves room for further volatility before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions