Russia's Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko's federal party list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 following a Rodina lawsuit over registration issues, with the appeals chamber upholding the ruling days later. This bars the liberal opposition party from nationwide proportional representation voting, where parties must exceed the 5% threshold for seats. Yabloko has not cleared that bar since 1999 and polled near 1% in 2021 amid restricted opposition activity. Traders assign 98.5% probability to "No" because confirmed exclusion removes any realistic path to proportional representation, though single-mandate candidacies remain possible in limited districts. Further supervisory review or abrupt rule changes before the September 18-20 vote represent low-probability scenarios that could theoretically reopen participation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
2% 機率
$95,164 交易量
$95,164 交易量
2026-09-20
是
2% 機率
$95,164 交易量
$95,164 交易量
2026-09-20
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia's Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko's federal party list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 following a Rodina lawsuit over registration issues, with the appeals chamber upholding the ruling days later. This bars the liberal opposition party from nationwide proportional representation voting, where parties must exceed the 5% threshold for seats. Yabloko has not cleared that bar since 1999 and polled near 1% in 2021 amid restricted opposition activity. Traders assign 98.5% probability to "No" because confirmed exclusion removes any realistic path to proportional representation, though single-mandate candidacies remain possible in limited districts. Further supervisory review or abrupt rule changes before the September 18-20 vote represent low-probability scenarios that could theoretically reopen participation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
市場開放時間： Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ET
交易量
$95,164結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia's Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko's federal party list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 following a Rodina lawsuit over registration issues, with the appeals chamber upholding the ruling days later. This bars the liberal opposition party from nationwide proportional representation voting, where parties must exceed the 5% threshold for seats. Yabloko has not cleared that bar since 1999 and polled near 1% in 2021 amid restricted opposition activity. Traders assign 98.5% probability to "No" because confirmed exclusion removes any realistic path to proportional representation, though single-mandate candidacies remain possible in limited districts. Further supervisory review or abrupt rule changes before the September 18-20 vote represent low-probability scenarios that could theoretically reopen participation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Yabloko party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Yabloko party list. Whether Yabloko is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the Yabloko party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
交易量
$95,164結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Aug 7, 2026, 9:57 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's Supreme Court disqualified Yabloko's federal party list from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 following a Rodina lawsuit over registration issues, with the appeals chamber upholding the ruling days later. This bars the liberal opposition party from nationwide proportional representation voting, where parties must exceed the 5% threshold for seats. Yabloko has not cleared that bar since 1999 and polled near 1% in 2021 amid restricted opposition activity. Traders assign 98.5% probability to "No" because confirmed exclusion removes any realistic path to proportional representation, though single-mandate candidacies remain possible in limited districts. Further supervisory review or abrupt rule changes before the September 18-20 vote represent low-probability scenarios that could theoretically reopen participation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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