Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.6% and the Philadelphia Fed’s May survey projecting 2.1% annualized expansion for Q2 anchor trader sentiment around the 2.0–2.5% bucket. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act—via tax cuts and expensing provisions—continue to support consumer spending and business investment, while AI-related capital expenditures add momentum. Offsetting pressures include elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, tariff drag on imports, and softening real disposable income that is curbing consumption. With leading outcome probabilities clustered between 17.5% and 27.5%, markets price in uncertainty over whether resilient labor conditions and policy support can outweigh these headwinds before the July advance estimate resolves the range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2.0–2.5% 28%
2.5–3.0% 21%
3.0–3.5% 19%
≥3.5% 13%
最新
最新
2026-07-30
<1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
6%
1.5–2.0%
7%
2.0–2.5%
28%
2.5–3.0%
21%
3.0–3.5%
19%
≥3.5%
13%
2.0–2.5% 28%
2.5–3.0% 21%
3.0–3.5% 19%
≥3.5% 13%
最新
最新
2026-07-30
<1.0%
$1,129 交易量
2%
1.0–1.5%
$729 交易量
6%
1.5–2.0%
$755 交易量
7%
2.0–2.5%
$1,371 交易量
28%
2.5–3.0%
$898 交易量
21%
3.0–3.5%
$887 交易量
19%
≥3.5%
$984 交易量
13%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.6% and the Philadelphia Fed’s May survey projecting 2.1% annualized expansion for Q2 anchor trader sentiment around the 2.0–2.5% bucket. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act—via tax cuts and expensing provisions—continue to support consumer spending and business investment, while AI-related capital expenditures add momentum. Offsetting pressures include elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, tariff drag on imports, and softening real disposable income that is curbing consumption. With leading outcome probabilities clustered between 17.5% and 27.5%, markets price in uncertainty over whether resilient labor conditions and policy support can outweigh these headwinds before the July advance estimate resolves the range.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
市場開放時間： Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
交易量
$6,753結束日期
2026-07-30市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.6% and the Philadelphia Fed’s May survey projecting 2.1% annualized expansion for Q2 anchor trader sentiment around the 2.0–2.5% bucket. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act—via tax cuts and expensing provisions—continue to support consumer spending and business investment, while AI-related capital expenditures add momentum. Offsetting pressures include elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, tariff drag on imports, and softening real disposable income that is curbing consumption. With leading outcome probabilities clustered between 17.5% and 27.5%, markets price in uncertainty over whether resilient labor conditions and policy support can outweigh these headwinds before the July advance estimate resolves the range.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
交易量
$6,753結束日期
2026-07-30市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 1.6% and the Philadelphia Fed’s May survey projecting 2.1% annualized expansion for Q2 anchor trader sentiment around the 2.0–2.5% bucket. Fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act—via tax cuts and expensing provisions—continue to support consumer spending and business investment, while AI-related capital expenditures add momentum. Offsetting pressures include elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, tariff drag on imports, and softening real disposable income that is curbing consumption. With leading outcome probabilities clustered between 17.5% and 27.5%, markets price in uncertainty over whether resilient labor conditions and policy support can outweigh these headwinds before the July advance estimate resolves the range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions