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icon for 2026年授權的美國軍事選拔？
政治·特朗普

2026年授權的美國軍事選拔？

icon for 2026年授權的美國軍事選拔？
政治·特朗普

2026年授權的美國軍事選拔？

是

9% 機率
Polymarket

$251,081 交易量

是

9% 機率
Polymarket

$251,081 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% for US military draft authorization in 2026, driven by the absence of any congressional bills, votes, or official proposals to reinstate conscription despite ongoing military recruitment challenges. Early April announcements confirmed a provision in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed by President Trump in December 2025—will automate Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December, streamlining the existing standby system without activating a draft, which requires a national emergency declaration, congressional authorization, and presidential proclamation. Geopolitical tensions, including the US-Israel war against Iran, have not prompted legislative action, reinforcing reliance on the all-volunteer force amid historical resistance to drafts since 1973. Late-breaking escalation or NDAA amendments could alter this outlook.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$251,081
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91% for US military draft authorization in 2026, driven by the absence of any congressional bills, votes, or official proposals to reinstate conscription despite ongoing military recruitment challenges. Early April announcements confirmed a provision in the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act—signed by President Trump in December 2025—will automate Selective Service registration for men aged 18-26 starting December, streamlining the existing standby system without activating a draft, which requires a national emergency declaration, congressional authorization, and presidential proclamation. Geopolitical tensions, including the US-Israel war against Iran, have not prompted legislative action, reinforcing reliance on the all-volunteer force amid historical resistance to drafts since 1973. Late-breaking escalation or NDAA amendments could alter this outlook.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$251,081
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年授權的美國軍事選拔？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國軍事徵兵在2026年被授權嗎？" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年授權的美國軍事選拔？" has generated $251.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年授權的美國軍事選拔？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "2026年授權的美國軍事選拔？" is "美國軍事徵兵在2026年被授權嗎？" at just 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "2026年授權的美國軍事選拔？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.