Trader consensus on no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end of 2026 reflects the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical surges required for such an operation in the narrow remaining window. Recent months show sustained but reduced PLA aerial and naval activity around the island, alongside Taiwan’s record defense budget, expanded drone procurement, and joint exercises incorporating anti-ship missiles and unmanned systems. Beijing continues lower-intensity coercion through coast guard patrols and air incursions without crossing into full conflict preparations. Potential shifts could stem from rapid escalation triggered by miscalculation, leadership directives amid domestic pressures, or unforeseen diplomatic breakdowns, though current patterns indicate these remain low-probability events before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$42,280,725 交易量
$42,280,725 交易量
2026-12-30
賺 3.25% 收益
是
4% 機率
$42,280,725 交易量
$42,280,725 交易量
2026-12-30
賺 3.25% 收益
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end of 2026 reflects the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical surges required for such an operation in the narrow remaining window. Recent months show sustained but reduced PLA aerial and naval activity around the island, alongside Taiwan’s record defense budget, expanded drone procurement, and joint exercises incorporating anti-ship missiles and unmanned systems. Beijing continues lower-intensity coercion through coast guard patrols and air incursions without crossing into full conflict preparations. Potential shifts could stem from rapid escalation triggered by miscalculation, leadership directives amid domestic pressures, or unforeseen diplomatic breakdowns, though current patterns indicate these remain low-probability events before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
交易量
$42,280,725結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end of 2026 reflects the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical surges required for such an operation in the narrow remaining window. Recent months show sustained but reduced PLA aerial and naval activity around the island, alongside Taiwan’s record defense budget, expanded drone procurement, and joint exercises incorporating anti-ship missiles and unmanned systems. Beijing continues lower-intensity coercion through coast guard patrols and air incursions without crossing into full conflict preparations. Potential shifts could stem from rapid escalation triggered by miscalculation, leadership directives amid domestic pressures, or unforeseen diplomatic breakdowns, though current patterns indicate these remain low-probability events before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$42,280,725結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETTrader consensus on no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end of 2026 reflects the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistical surges required for such an operation in the narrow remaining window. Recent months show sustained but reduced PLA aerial and naval activity around the island, alongside Taiwan’s record defense budget, expanded drone procurement, and joint exercises incorporating anti-ship missiles and unmanned systems. Beijing continues lower-intensity coercion through coast guard patrols and air incursions without crossing into full conflict preparations. Potential shifts could stem from rapid escalation triggered by miscalculation, leadership directives amid domestic pressures, or unforeseen diplomatic breakdowns, though current patterns indicate these remain low-probability events before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions