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政治·特朗普

Will Elon register any party before 2027?

icon for Will Elon register any party before 2027?
政治·特朗普

Will Elon register any party before 2027?

12月 31

12月 31

9% 機率
Polymarket
最新
9% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.Elon Musk’s July 2025 announcement of the America Party, framed as a challenge to the two-party system after his public dispute with President Trump over a spending bill, has not been followed by any formal registration with federal or state election authorities. Reports from August 2025 onward indicate Musk quietly scaled back those plans to prioritize his companies and preserve ties with Republican leaders including Vice President JD Vance. Subsequent political activity has centered on substantial donations supporting Republican candidates ahead of the 2026 midterms rather than building an independent ballot line. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome a 90.8 percent implied probability, reflecting the absence of documented party formation steps through the first half of 2026 and the structural barriers any new national party would face before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
交易量
$6,058
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 4:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.Elon Musk’s July 2025 announcement of the America Party, framed as a challenge to the two-party system after his public dispute with President Trump over a spending bill, has not been followed by any formal registration with federal or state election authorities. Reports from August 2025 onward indicate Musk quietly scaled back those plans to prioritize his companies and preserve ties with Republican leaders including Vice President JD Vance. Subsequent political activity has centered on substantial donations supporting Republican candidates ahead of the 2026 midterms rather than building an independent ballot line. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome a 90.8 percent implied probability, reflecting the absence of documented party formation steps through the first half of 2026 and the structural barriers any new national party would face before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.
交易量
$6,058
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 4:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk formally registers a political party in the United States by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The registration must be made with a relevant state or federal election authority and reported as such by a consensus of credible media outlets.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Elon register any party before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 9% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 9¢, the market collectively assigns a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Elon register any party before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 5, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Elon register any party before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Elon register any party before 2027?" is 9% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 9% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Elon register any party before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.