Ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Iran, which escalated with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in early 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile responses, has eliminated any near-term path to diplomatic normalization. Bilateral relations have remained frozen since 1979 with no embassies or formal ties, a status reinforced by Israel's calls for allies to sever connections with Tehran and persistent security risks that prompted temporary closures of other nations' missions. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no reopening in 2026 reflects these entrenched hostilities and the absence of any verified de-escalation framework. Even with a fragile ceasefire in place, realistic shifts would require sustained bilateral negotiations or major leadership changes unlikely to materialize before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$193,377 交易量
$193,377 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
$193,377 交易量
$193,377 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Iran, which escalated with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in early 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile responses, has eliminated any near-term path to diplomatic normalization. Bilateral relations have remained frozen since 1979 with no embassies or formal ties, a status reinforced by Israel's calls for allies to sever connections with Tehran and persistent security risks that prompted temporary closures of other nations' missions. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no reopening in 2026 reflects these entrenched hostilities and the absence of any verified de-escalation framework. Even with a fragile ceasefire in place, realistic shifts would require sustained bilateral negotiations or major leadership changes unlikely to materialize before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
交易量
$193,377結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Iran, which escalated with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in early 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile responses, has eliminated any near-term path to diplomatic normalization. Bilateral relations have remained frozen since 1979 with no embassies or formal ties, a status reinforced by Israel's calls for allies to sever connections with Tehran and persistent security risks that prompted temporary closures of other nations' missions. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no reopening in 2026 reflects these entrenched hostilities and the absence of any verified de-escalation framework. Even with a fragile ceasefire in place, realistic shifts would require sustained bilateral negotiations or major leadership changes unlikely to materialize before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$193,377結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Iran, which escalated with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in early 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile responses, has eliminated any near-term path to diplomatic normalization. Bilateral relations have remained frozen since 1979 with no embassies or formal ties, a status reinforced by Israel's calls for allies to sever connections with Tehran and persistent security risks that prompted temporary closures of other nations' missions. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no reopening in 2026 reflects these entrenched hostilities and the absence of any verified de-escalation framework. Even with a fragile ceasefire in place, realistic shifts would require sustained bilateral negotiations or major leadership changes unlikely to materialize before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions