Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no U.S. annexation of territory occurring in 2026 due to entrenched diplomatic, legal, and institutional constraints that have contained recent expansionist proposals. International opposition from allies like Denmark and NATO members, combined with prohibitions under international law against forcible acquisition, has limited follow-through on early-year statements regarding Greenland and other areas. Congressional approval requirements, constitutional processes for territorial incorporation, and a preference for basing or security agreements over formal annexation further reinforce the consensus. With only months remaining in the calendar year, absent an unforeseen escalation such as a rapid negotiated transfer or major conflict outcome altering sovereignty before December 31, the implied probability reflects sustained barriers observed across comparable historical cases.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$154,658 交易量
$154,658 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
$154,658 交易量
$154,658 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no U.S. annexation of territory occurring in 2026 due to entrenched diplomatic, legal, and institutional constraints that have contained recent expansionist proposals. International opposition from allies like Denmark and NATO members, combined with prohibitions under international law against forcible acquisition, has limited follow-through on early-year statements regarding Greenland and other areas. Congressional approval requirements, constitutional processes for territorial incorporation, and a preference for basing or security agreements over formal annexation further reinforce the consensus. With only months remaining in the calendar year, absent an unforeseen escalation such as a rapid negotiated transfer or major conflict outcome altering sovereignty before December 31, the implied probability reflects sustained barriers observed across comparable historical cases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
交易量
$154,658結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no U.S. annexation of territory occurring in 2026 due to entrenched diplomatic, legal, and institutional constraints that have contained recent expansionist proposals. International opposition from allies like Denmark and NATO members, combined with prohibitions under international law against forcible acquisition, has limited follow-through on early-year statements regarding Greenland and other areas. Congressional approval requirements, constitutional processes for territorial incorporation, and a preference for basing or security agreements over formal annexation further reinforce the consensus. With only months remaining in the calendar year, absent an unforeseen escalation such as a rapid negotiated transfer or major conflict outcome altering sovereignty before December 31, the implied probability reflects sustained barriers observed across comparable historical cases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$154,658結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.2% probability to no U.S. annexation of territory occurring in 2026 due to entrenched diplomatic, legal, and institutional constraints that have contained recent expansionist proposals. International opposition from allies like Denmark and NATO members, combined with prohibitions under international law against forcible acquisition, has limited follow-through on early-year statements regarding Greenland and other areas. Congressional approval requirements, constitutional processes for territorial incorporation, and a preference for basing or security agreements over formal annexation further reinforce the consensus. With only months remaining in the calendar year, absent an unforeseen escalation such as a rapid negotiated transfer or major conflict outcome altering sovereignty before December 31, the implied probability reflects sustained barriers observed across comparable historical cases.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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