Recent July inflation data from INDEC at 2.1% month-on-month, slightly above consensus, has anchored trader expectations for the August reading near 1.9%, supporting the 56% implied probability on the 1.8-2.0% outcome. Persistent disinflation reflects the Milei administration’s fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy, which have reduced monthly rates from above 3% earlier in the year while the year-over-year rate held at 33.8%. Seasonal winter holiday effects contributed to July’s modest acceleration, yet forward-looking analyst surveys continue to project full-year 2026 inflation around 29-30%, consistent with the market-implied path. The next key catalyst remains the mid-September INDEC release, which will clarify whether the cooling trend resumes after July’s print.