The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% for a fifth straight meeting on June 10 underpins the 94% market-implied probability of no change at the July 15 announcement. Weak domestic growth, persistent slack in the labor market, and elevated uncertainty around U.S. trade policy have kept the central bank on hold despite headline CPI rising to 2.8% in April amid Middle East-related energy price spikes. Core measures remain near the 2% target, allowing policymakers to look through temporary inflation pressures while monitoring whether higher oil prices feed into broader expectations. Traders assign only single-digit odds to a 25-basis-point move in either direction, reflecting the BoC’s explicit stance that it will adjust only if risks shift materially. A clearer signal of persistent inflation or stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP could tilt odds toward a hike, whereas deeper economic softening might revive cut expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于No Change 96.0%
25 bps decrease 1.6%
25 bps increase 1.0%
50+ bps increase <1%
$18,809 交易量
$18,809 交易量
2026-07-15
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase
1%
No Change
96%
25 bps decrease
2%
50+ bps decrease
<1%
No Change 96.0%
25 bps decrease 1.6%
25 bps increase 1.0%
50+ bps increase <1%
$18,809 交易量
$18,809 交易量
2026-07-15
50+ bps increase
$3,569 交易量
<1%
25 bps increase
$3,989 交易量
1%
No Change
$3,990 交易量
96%
25 bps decrease
$3,952 交易量
2%
50+ bps decrease
$3,309 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the July 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its July 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for July 15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its July 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% for a fifth straight meeting on June 10 underpins the 94% market-implied probability of no change at the July 15 announcement. Weak domestic growth, persistent slack in the labor market, and elevated uncertainty around U.S. trade policy have kept the central bank on hold despite headline CPI rising to 2.8% in April amid Middle East-related energy price spikes. Core measures remain near the 2% target, allowing policymakers to look through temporary inflation pressures while monitoring whether higher oil prices feed into broader expectations. Traders assign only single-digit odds to a 25-basis-point move in either direction, reflecting the BoC’s explicit stance that it will adjust only if risks shift materially. A clearer signal of persistent inflation or stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP could tilt odds toward a hike, whereas deeper economic softening might revive cut expectations.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the July 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its July 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for July 15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its July 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its July 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for July 15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its July 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
交易量
$18,809结束日期
2026-07-15市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the July 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its July 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for July 15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its July 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% for a fifth straight meeting on June 10 underpins the 94% market-implied probability of no change at the July 15 announcement. Weak domestic growth, persistent slack in the labor market, and elevated uncertainty around U.S. trade policy have kept the central bank on hold despite headline CPI rising to 2.8% in April amid Middle East-related energy price spikes. Core measures remain near the 2% target, allowing policymakers to look through temporary inflation pressures while monitoring whether higher oil prices feed into broader expectations. Traders assign only single-digit odds to a 25-basis-point move in either direction, reflecting the BoC’s explicit stance that it will adjust only if risks shift materially. A clearer signal of persistent inflation or stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP could tilt odds toward a hike, whereas deeper economic softening might revive cut expectations.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the July 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its July 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for July 15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its July 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its July 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for July 15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its July 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
交易量
$18,809结束日期
2026-07-15市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its overnight rate at 2.25% for a fifth straight meeting on June 10 underpins the 94% market-implied probability of no change at the July 15 announcement. Weak domestic growth, persistent slack in the labor market, and elevated uncertainty around U.S. trade policy have kept the central bank on hold despite headline CPI rising to 2.8% in April amid Middle East-related energy price spikes. Core measures remain near the 2% target, allowing policymakers to look through temporary inflation pressures while monitoring whether higher oil prices feed into broader expectations. Traders assign only single-digit odds to a 25-basis-point move in either direction, reflecting the BoC’s explicit stance that it will adjust only if risks shift materially. A clearer signal of persistent inflation or stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP could tilt odds toward a hike, whereas deeper economic softening might revive cut expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题