Recent data on Russian inflation and growth expectations have anchored trader positioning around a hold or measured easing at the Bank of Russia’s September 11 meeting. Annual inflation stands near 5.9 percent, with the central bank projecting 6–7 percent for 2026 after fuel-price surges tied to refinery disruptions, while underlying measures remain in the 4–5 percent annualized range. The July 24 decision delivered only a 25-basis-point cut to 14 percent—smaller than some prior steps—and revised the 2026 average rate path upward to 14.5–14.6 percent amid expansionary fiscal policy and moderating demand. These factors support the 63 percent consensus on no change, with a 37.5 percent probability of a further modest reduction if incoming prints confirm contained second-round effects and decelerating lending.