Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the December 2026 FOMC decision, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% supporting the market-implied 58.5% probability of no change in the 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range. Hawkish revisions from firms such as J.P. Morgan, which now forecast a first 25-basis-point hike in December amid concerns over energy prices and new Chair Warsh’s credibility, underpin the 29.5% odds of a 25 bp increase. Recent labor-market softening and a divided committee that held rates steady in July temper cut probabilities, while upcoming September data and the FOMC’s dot plot will further shape the implied rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 59%
25 bps increase 30%
25 bps decrease 11.1%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$98,058 交易量
$98,058 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
11%
无变化
59%
25 bps increase
30%
50+ bps increase
1%
无变化 59%
25 bps increase 30%
25 bps decrease 11.1%
50+ bps decrease 2.4%
$98,058 交易量
$98,058 交易量
2026-12-09
50+ bps decrease
$15,533 交易量
2%
25 bps decrease
$27,376 交易量
11%
无变化
$21,147 交易量
59%
25 bps increase
$19,487 交易量
30%
50+ bps increase
$14,515 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the December 2026 FOMC decision, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% supporting the market-implied 58.5% probability of no change in the 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range. Hawkish revisions from firms such as J.P. Morgan, which now forecast a first 25-basis-point hike in December amid concerns over energy prices and new Chair Warsh’s credibility, underpin the 29.5% odds of a 25 bp increase. Recent labor-market softening and a divided committee that held rates steady in July temper cut probabilities, while upcoming September data and the FOMC’s dot plot will further shape the implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
交易量
$98,058结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the December 2026 FOMC decision, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% supporting the market-implied 58.5% probability of no change in the 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range. Hawkish revisions from firms such as J.P. Morgan, which now forecast a first 25-basis-point hike in December amid concerns over energy prices and new Chair Warsh’s credibility, underpin the 29.5% odds of a 25 bp increase. Recent labor-market softening and a divided committee that held rates steady in July temper cut probabilities, while upcoming September data and the FOMC’s dot plot will further shape the implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$98,058结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the December 2026 FOMC decision, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% supporting the market-implied 58.5% probability of no change in the 3.50–3.75% federal funds rate range. Hawkish revisions from firms such as J.P. Morgan, which now forecast a first 25-basis-point hike in December amid concerns over energy prices and new Chair Warsh’s credibility, underpin the 29.5% odds of a 25 bp increase. Recent labor-market softening and a divided committee that held rates steady in July temper cut probabilities, while upcoming September data and the FOMC’s dot plot will further shape the implied rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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