Strong high-pressure conditions combined with southerly flow and limited cloud cover have driven ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service to converge on a daily maximum near 32°C for Munich on August 16. This atmospheric setup favors enhanced solar insolation and adiabatic warming, pushing surface temperatures to that level under stable subsidence. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 32°C reflects the tight model agreement and absence of significant cooling mechanisms such as frontal passages. Unexpected increases in convective cloud cover or isolated showers could modestly suppress the peak by 1–2°C, though current guidance indicates minimal risk of such disruption before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月16日慕尼黑气温最高？
8月16日慕尼黑气温最高？
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$142,858 交易量
$142,858 交易量
2026-08-16
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$142,858 交易量
$142,858 交易量
2026-08-16
28°C or below
$17,166 交易量
No
29°C
$13,497 交易量
No
30°C
$18,410 交易量
No
31°C
$23,788 交易量
No
32°C
$23,688 交易量
Yes
33°C
$19,051 交易量
No
34°C
$14,592 交易量
No
35°C
$6,577 交易量
No
36°C
$4,186 交易量
No
37°C
$1,665 交易量
No
38°C or higher
$238 交易量
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong high-pressure conditions combined with southerly flow and limited cloud cover have driven ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service to converge on a daily maximum near 32°C for Munich on August 16. This atmospheric setup favors enhanced solar insolation and adiabatic warming, pushing surface temperatures to that level under stable subsidence. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 32°C reflects the tight model agreement and absence of significant cooling mechanisms such as frontal passages. Unexpected increases in convective cloud cover or isolated showers could modestly suppress the peak by 1–2°C, though current guidance indicates minimal risk of such disruption before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$142,858结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong high-pressure conditions combined with southerly flow and limited cloud cover have driven ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service to converge on a daily maximum near 32°C for Munich on August 16. This atmospheric setup favors enhanced solar insolation and adiabatic warming, pushing surface temperatures to that level under stable subsidence. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 32°C reflects the tight model agreement and absence of significant cooling mechanisms such as frontal passages. Unexpected increases in convective cloud cover or isolated showers could modestly suppress the peak by 1–2°C, though current guidance indicates minimal risk of such disruption before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$142,858结束日期
2026-08-16市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Strong high-pressure conditions combined with southerly flow and limited cloud cover have driven ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service to converge on a daily maximum near 32°C for Munich on August 16. This atmospheric setup favors enhanced solar insolation and adiabatic warming, pushing surface temperatures to that level under stable subsidence. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 32°C reflects the tight model agreement and absence of significant cooling mechanisms such as frontal passages. Unexpected increases in convective cloud cover or isolated showers could modestly suppress the peak by 1–2°C, though current guidance indicates minimal risk of such disruption before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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