Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance, along with ensemble runs from the National Blend of Models, points to an overnight low in central NYC near 72–75 °F on August 18 under a warm, humid air mass with limited radiational cooling. Dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, combined with urban heat-island effects and likely cloud cover or light southerly flow, suppress the usual nocturnal drop that would occur in rural areas. This setup aligns with the market’s leading 74–75 °F (43 %) and 72–73 °F (24 %) bins, reflecting trader consensus around the upper end of August climatology for Central Park. Warmer-than-average monthly conditions noted by the Climate Prediction Center reinforce the lack of any significant cold-air advection, while the tight clustering of probability above 70 °F indicates low expected variability absent an unforecasted frontal passage or model shift in the final hours before midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于纽约市8月18日的最低温度？
纽约市8月18日的最低温度？
74-75°F 50%
72-73°F 27%
76-77°F 16%
70-71°F 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
63°F或更低
<1%
64-65°F
2%
66-67华氏度
4%
68-69°F
7%
70-71°F
13%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
50%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
6%
80-81°F
4%
82°F或更高
1%
74-75°F 50%
72-73°F 27%
76-77°F 16%
70-71°F 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-18
63°F或更低
$55 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$55 交易量
2%
66-67华氏度
$65 交易量
4%
68-69°F
$0 交易量
7%
70-71°F
$0 交易量
13%
72-73°F
$0 交易量
27%
74-75°F
$0 交易量
50%
76-77°F
$11 交易量
16%
78-79°F
$5 交易量
6%
80-81°F
$55 交易量
4%
82°F或更高
$50 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance, along with ensemble runs from the National Blend of Models, points to an overnight low in central NYC near 72–75 °F on August 18 under a warm, humid air mass with limited radiational cooling. Dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, combined with urban heat-island effects and likely cloud cover or light southerly flow, suppress the usual nocturnal drop that would occur in rural areas. This setup aligns with the market’s leading 74–75 °F (43 %) and 72–73 °F (24 %) bins, reflecting trader consensus around the upper end of August climatology for Central Park. Warmer-than-average monthly conditions noted by the Climate Prediction Center reinforce the lack of any significant cold-air advection, while the tight clustering of probability above 70 °F indicates low expected variability absent an unforecasted frontal passage or model shift in the final hours before midnight.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
交易量
$291结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance, along with ensemble runs from the National Blend of Models, points to an overnight low in central NYC near 72–75 °F on August 18 under a warm, humid air mass with limited radiational cooling. Dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, combined with urban heat-island effects and likely cloud cover or light southerly flow, suppress the usual nocturnal drop that would occur in rural areas. This setup aligns with the market’s leading 74–75 °F (43 %) and 72–73 °F (24 %) bins, reflecting trader consensus around the upper end of August climatology for Central Park. Warmer-than-average monthly conditions noted by the Climate Prediction Center reinforce the lack of any significant cold-air advection, while the tight clustering of probability above 70 °F indicates low expected variability absent an unforecasted frontal passage or model shift in the final hours before midnight.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$291结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ETRecent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance, along with ensemble runs from the National Blend of Models, points to an overnight low in central NYC near 72–75 °F on August 18 under a warm, humid air mass with limited radiational cooling. Dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, combined with urban heat-island effects and likely cloud cover or light southerly flow, suppress the usual nocturnal drop that would occur in rural areas. This setup aligns with the market’s leading 74–75 °F (43 %) and 72–73 °F (24 %) bins, reflecting trader consensus around the upper end of August climatology for Central Park. Warmer-than-average monthly conditions noted by the Climate Prediction Center reinforce the lack of any significant cold-air advection, while the tight clustering of probability above 70 °F indicates low expected variability absent an unforecasted frontal passage or model shift in the final hours before midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题