Traders assign the highest implied probability (28%) to a 70-71°F peak in San Francisco on June 16 because official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models currently cluster around 67-72°F amid moderate onshore flow and a weakening marine layer. Persistent Pacific high pressure has supported above-average warmth through mid-June, yet coastal upwelling and typical June fog patterns limit extremes. Key variables include morning cloud cover depth, afternoon sea breeze timing, and localized warming in sheltered valleys, which can shift the daily maximum by 3-5°F. Model spread widens odds across the 68-73°F range while rendering 76°F+ outcomes unlikely absent a sharp offshore wind shift. Updated NWS guidance tonight will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 16?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 16?
70-71°F 30%
72-73°F 19%
68-69°F 13%
74-75°F 13%
最新
最新
2026-06-16
65°F or below
2%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
13%
70-71°F
30%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
13%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 30%
72-73°F 19%
68-69°F 13%
74-75°F 13%
最新
最新
2026-06-16
65°F or below
$111 交易量
2%
66-67°F
$0 交易量
9%
68-69°F
$31 交易量
13%
70-71°F
$35 交易量
30%
72-73°F
$5 交易量
19%
74-75°F
$109 交易量
13%
76-77°F
$0 交易量
8%
78-79°F
$5 交易量
1%
80-81°F
$20 交易量
<1%
82-83°F
$5 交易量
<1%
84°F or higher
$55 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (28%) to a 70-71°F peak in San Francisco on June 16 because official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models currently cluster around 67-72°F amid moderate onshore flow and a weakening marine layer. Persistent Pacific high pressure has supported above-average warmth through mid-June, yet coastal upwelling and typical June fog patterns limit extremes. Key variables include morning cloud cover depth, afternoon sea breeze timing, and localized warming in sheltered valleys, which can shift the daily maximum by 3-5°F. Model spread widens odds across the 68-73°F range while rendering 76°F+ outcomes unlikely absent a sharp offshore wind shift. Updated NWS guidance tonight will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 14, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
交易量
$261结束日期
2026-06-16市场开放时间
Jun 14, 2026, 9:11 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probability (28%) to a 70-71°F peak in San Francisco on June 16 because official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models currently cluster around 67-72°F amid moderate onshore flow and a weakening marine layer. Persistent Pacific high pressure has supported above-average warmth through mid-June, yet coastal upwelling and typical June fog patterns limit extremes. Key variables include morning cloud cover depth, afternoon sea breeze timing, and localized warming in sheltered valleys, which can shift the daily maximum by 3-5°F. Model spread widens odds across the 68-73°F range while rendering 76°F+ outcomes unlikely absent a sharp offshore wind shift. Updated NWS guidance tonight will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$261结束日期
2026-06-16市场开放时间
Jun 14, 2026, 9:11 PM ETTraders assign the highest implied probability (28%) to a 70-71°F peak in San Francisco on June 16 because official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models currently cluster around 67-72°F amid moderate onshore flow and a weakening marine layer. Persistent Pacific high pressure has supported above-average warmth through mid-June, yet coastal upwelling and typical June fog patterns limit extremes. Key variables include morning cloud cover depth, afternoon sea breeze timing, and localized warming in sheltered valleys, which can shift the daily maximum by 3-5°F. Model spread widens odds across the 68-73°F range while rendering 76°F+ outcomes unlikely absent a sharp offshore wind shift. Updated NWS guidance tonight will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题