Recent short-range model consensus from INMET and global ensembles points to daytime maxima near 29–30 °C in São Paulo on August 13, supported by warm advection ahead of a weak trough and a building subtropical ridge that has displaced earlier frontal cooling. This synoptic setup has pushed implied probabilities toward 30 °C (50.5 %) and 29 °C (28.5 %), well above the long-term August average high of roughly 24–25 °C for the city. Lower outcomes such as 28 °C or below carry minimal weight because recent observational trends and ensemble guidance show limited cooling influence, while probabilities for 31 °C or higher remain capped by the absence of stronger ridging or downslope warming. Traders are closely watching the next INMET and global model updates, which will refine boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns ahead of the daily maximum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月13日圣保罗的最高温度？
8月13日圣保罗的最高温度？
30°C 52%
29°C 29%
31°C 18%
28°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-13
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
29%
30°C
52%
31°C
18%
32°C
3%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 52%
29°C 29%
31°C 18%
28°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-13
24°C or below
$189 交易量
<1%
25°C
$204 交易量
<1%
26°C
$176 交易量
<1%
27°C
$425 交易量
1%
28°C
$2,389 交易量
4%
29°C
$1,230 交易量
29%
30°C
$806 交易量
52%
31°C
$823 交易量
18%
32°C
$165 交易量
3%
33°C
$126 交易量
<1%
34°C or higher
$657 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from INMET and global ensembles points to daytime maxima near 29–30 °C in São Paulo on August 13, supported by warm advection ahead of a weak trough and a building subtropical ridge that has displaced earlier frontal cooling. This synoptic setup has pushed implied probabilities toward 30 °C (50.5 %) and 29 °C (28.5 %), well above the long-term August average high of roughly 24–25 °C for the city. Lower outcomes such as 28 °C or below carry minimal weight because recent observational trends and ensemble guidance show limited cooling influence, while probabilities for 31 °C or higher remain capped by the absence of stronger ridging or downslope warming. Traders are closely watching the next INMET and global model updates, which will refine boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns ahead of the daily maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 9:01 PM ET
交易量
$7,190结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 9:01 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from INMET and global ensembles points to daytime maxima near 29–30 °C in São Paulo on August 13, supported by warm advection ahead of a weak trough and a building subtropical ridge that has displaced earlier frontal cooling. This synoptic setup has pushed implied probabilities toward 30 °C (50.5 %) and 29 °C (28.5 %), well above the long-term August average high of roughly 24–25 °C for the city. Lower outcomes such as 28 °C or below carry minimal weight because recent observational trends and ensemble guidance show limited cooling influence, while probabilities for 31 °C or higher remain capped by the absence of stronger ridging or downslope warming. Traders are closely watching the next INMET and global model updates, which will refine boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns ahead of the daily maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$7,190结束日期
2026-08-13市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 9:01 PM ETRecent short-range model consensus from INMET and global ensembles points to daytime maxima near 29–30 °C in São Paulo on August 13, supported by warm advection ahead of a weak trough and a building subtropical ridge that has displaced earlier frontal cooling. This synoptic setup has pushed implied probabilities toward 30 °C (50.5 %) and 29 °C (28.5 %), well above the long-term August average high of roughly 24–25 °C for the city. Lower outcomes such as 28 °C or below carry minimal weight because recent observational trends and ensemble guidance show limited cooling influence, while probabilities for 31 °C or higher remain capped by the absence of stronger ridging or downslope warming. Traders are closely watching the next INMET and global model updates, which will refine boundary-layer moisture and wind patterns ahead of the daily maximum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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