Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources indicate a highest temperature near 24°C for Tokyo on September 18, driven by persistent overcast skies, light rain or drizzle, and northerly winds around 10-16 km/h that limit daytime warming. Recent observations show continued cloud cover and precipitation suppressing temperatures below seasonal averages, with afternoon highs projected in the 23-25°C range across ensemble runs. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 24°C outcome at 39% implied probability, followed by 23°C and 25°C, as stable atmospheric conditions reduce the likelihood of significant warming or cooling before resolution. Updated model guidance on September 17 will refine these probabilities ahead of the market close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月18日东京气温最高？
9月18日东京气温最高？
24°C 39%
25°C 26%
23°C 20%
26°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
19°C或以下
3%
20°C
4%
21°C
9%
22°C
10%
23°C
20%
24°C
38%
25°C
26%
26°C
11%
27°C
3%
28°C
4%
29°C或更高
3%
24°C 39%
25°C 26%
23°C 20%
26°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
19°C或以下
$0 交易量
3%
20°C
$0 交易量
4%
21°C
$0 交易量
9%
22°C
$0 交易量
10%
23°C
$0 交易量
20%
24°C
$40 交易量
38%
25°C
$0 交易量
26%
26°C
$0 交易量
11%
27°C
$53 交易量
3%
28°C
$0 交易量
4%
29°C或更高
$0 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources indicate a highest temperature near 24°C for Tokyo on September 18, driven by persistent overcast skies, light rain or drizzle, and northerly winds around 10-16 km/h that limit daytime warming. Recent observations show continued cloud cover and precipitation suppressing temperatures below seasonal averages, with afternoon highs projected in the 23-25°C range across ensemble runs. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 24°C outcome at 39% implied probability, followed by 23°C and 25°C, as stable atmospheric conditions reduce the likelihood of significant warming or cooling before resolution. Updated model guidance on September 17 will refine these probabilities ahead of the market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$93结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources indicate a highest temperature near 24°C for Tokyo on September 18, driven by persistent overcast skies, light rain or drizzle, and northerly winds around 10-16 km/h that limit daytime warming. Recent observations show continued cloud cover and precipitation suppressing temperatures below seasonal averages, with afternoon highs projected in the 23-25°C range across ensemble runs. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 24°C outcome at 39% implied probability, followed by 23°C and 25°C, as stable atmospheric conditions reduce the likelihood of significant warming or cooling before resolution. Updated model guidance on September 17 will refine these probabilities ahead of the market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$93结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETForecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international sources indicate a highest temperature near 24°C for Tokyo on September 18, driven by persistent overcast skies, light rain or drizzle, and northerly winds around 10-16 km/h that limit daytime warming. Recent observations show continued cloud cover and precipitation suppressing temperatures below seasonal averages, with afternoon highs projected in the 23-25°C range across ensemble runs. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 24°C outcome at 39% implied probability, followed by 23°C and 25°C, as stable atmospheric conditions reduce the likelihood of significant warming or cooling before resolution. Updated model guidance on September 17 will refine these probabilities ahead of the market close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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