Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco on September 15 points to a high near 70–72°F under partly cloudy skies, with marine layer and southwest breezes potentially limiting warming in the urban core. This follows a sharp cool-down from the September 9 peak of 94°F, the hottest reading so far this year, as onshore flow strengthens. Ensemble spreads and microclimate effects create genuine uncertainty across the 66–75°F range, where most market-implied probability sits, while the 23% odds on sub-64°F or 82°F+ outcomes reflect tail risks from stronger fog intrusion or clearer, warmer conditions. Official daily maximum from downtown observations will determine resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月15日旧金山气温最高？
9月15日旧金山气温最高？
68-69°F 40%
66-67°F 38%
70-71°F 31%
72-73°F 27%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
63°F或以下
11%
64-65°F
22%
66-67°F
38%
68-69°F
40%
70-71°F
31%
72-73°F
27%
74-75华氏度
13%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
4%
82°F或更高
20%
68-69°F 40%
66-67°F 38%
70-71°F 31%
72-73°F 27%
最新
最新
2026-09-15
63°F或以下
$0 交易量
11%
64-65°F
$0 交易量
22%
66-67°F
$0 交易量
38%
68-69°F
$0 交易量
40%
70-71°F
$0 交易量
31%
72-73°F
$0 交易量
27%
74-75华氏度
$0 交易量
13%
76-77°F
$0 交易量
18%
78-79°F
$0 交易量
7%
80-81°F
$0 交易量
4%
82°F或更高
$0 交易量
20%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco on September 15 points to a high near 70–72°F under partly cloudy skies, with marine layer and southwest breezes potentially limiting warming in the urban core. This follows a sharp cool-down from the September 9 peak of 94°F, the hottest reading so far this year, as onshore flow strengthens. Ensemble spreads and microclimate effects create genuine uncertainty across the 66–75°F range, where most market-implied probability sits, while the 23% odds on sub-64°F or 82°F+ outcomes reflect tail risks from stronger fog intrusion or clearer, warmer conditions. Official daily maximum from downtown observations will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco on September 15 points to a high near 70–72°F under partly cloudy skies, with marine layer and southwest breezes potentially limiting warming in the urban core. This follows a sharp cool-down from the September 9 peak of 94°F, the hottest reading so far this year, as onshore flow strengthens. Ensemble spreads and microclimate effects create genuine uncertainty across the 66–75°F range, where most market-implied probability sits, while the 23% odds on sub-64°F or 82°F+ outcomes reflect tail risks from stronger fog intrusion or clearer, warmer conditions. Official daily maximum from downtown observations will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-09-15市场开放时间
Sep 13, 2026, 12:58 PM ETRecent National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco on September 15 points to a high near 70–72°F under partly cloudy skies, with marine layer and southwest breezes potentially limiting warming in the urban core. This follows a sharp cool-down from the September 9 peak of 94°F, the hottest reading so far this year, as onshore flow strengthens. Ensemble spreads and microclimate effects create genuine uncertainty across the 66–75°F range, where most market-implied probability sits, while the 23% odds on sub-64°F or 82°F+ outcomes reflect tail risks from stronger fog intrusion or clearer, warmer conditions. Official daily maximum from downtown observations will determine resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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