The Trump administration's expansion of Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations, including higher arrest volumes and expanded detention capacity, has driven trader consensus toward the 300-500k range for 2026 deportations. Official budget documents target one million removals annually, building on roughly 443,000 ICE deportations in fiscal 2025, yet recent months show arrests declining from peaks near 1,300 per day and detention populations falling from 72,000 to 58,000. This gap between stated goals and current enforcement pace keeps the 400-500k and 300-400k outcomes closely matched. Further separation could occur through additional congressional funding, accelerated repatriation agreements, or court rulings on expedited removal, while capacity constraints or legal challenges might favor lower brackets.