Recent enforcement data shows ICE on pace for roughly 430,000–450,000 removals in fiscal year 2026, with 356,389 recorded through mid-July at an average of about 1,260 per day. This run rate, combined with expanded detention capacity near 66,000 and heightened interior arrests focused on individuals with criminal convictions, underpins trader consensus around the 400-500k range. Increased funding and personnel have boosted operations since early 2026, yet logistical, legal, and resource constraints have kept totals well below the one-million target discussed in policy statements. Declining border encounters have allowed a shift toward interior enforcement, but weekly arrest and removal figures have not accelerated enough to support higher brackets. The market reflects these observed trends and the practical limits on scaling deportations further within the calendar year.