Canada's federal government has implemented tighter immigration controls through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, capping permanent resident admissions near 380,000 while sharply reducing new temporary resident arrivals such as international students and foreign workers. This has produced sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents that more than offset modest natural increase and permanent inflows. Statistics Canada data confirm quarterly population declines through the first half of 2026, with the Parliamentary Budget Officer projecting flat or negative annual growth for the full year as temporary resident volumes continue trending toward the sub-5% target. These verified policy-driven demographic shifts underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability assigned to a net population decrease.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于上升
6% 概率
最新
最新
2027-04-30
上升
6% 概率
最新
最新
2027-04-30
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's federal government has implemented tighter immigration controls through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, capping permanent resident admissions near 380,000 while sharply reducing new temporary resident arrivals such as international students and foreign workers. This has produced sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents that more than offset modest natural increase and permanent inflows. Statistics Canada data confirm quarterly population declines through the first half of 2026, with the Parliamentary Budget Officer projecting flat or negative annual growth for the full year as temporary resident volumes continue trending toward the sub-5% target. These verified policy-driven demographic shifts underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability assigned to a net population decrease.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$2,167结束日期
2027-04-30市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's federal government has implemented tighter immigration controls through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, capping permanent resident admissions near 380,000 while sharply reducing new temporary resident arrivals such as international students and foreign workers. This has produced sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents that more than offset modest natural increase and permanent inflows. Statistics Canada data confirm quarterly population declines through the first half of 2026, with the Parliamentary Budget Officer projecting flat or negative annual growth for the full year as temporary resident volumes continue trending toward the sub-5% target. These verified policy-driven demographic shifts underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability assigned to a net population decrease.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$2,167结束日期
2027-04-30市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's federal government has implemented tighter immigration controls through the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, capping permanent resident admissions near 380,000 while sharply reducing new temporary resident arrivals such as international students and foreign workers. This has produced sustained net outflows of non-permanent residents that more than offset modest natural increase and permanent inflows. Statistics Canada data confirm quarterly population declines through the first half of 2026, with the Parliamentary Budget Officer projecting flat or negative annual growth for the full year as temporary resident volumes continue trending toward the sub-5% target. These verified policy-driven demographic shifts underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability assigned to a net population decrease.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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