The elevated formation rate of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific, with 16 named storms by early August amid a developing El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole, forms the core driver of trader sentiment around 7–8+ landfalls in China. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others project 24–29 total systems for the basin—above the climatological norm—with 7–9 expected to strike the mainland, exceeding the typical 6–7 annual average. Multiple confirmed 2026 landfalls, including Maysak in Hainan, Noul and Bavi in southern and eastern provinces, and Dolphin in Zhejiang, plus stronger-than-average intensities observed, narrow probabilities between 7, 8, and greater than 8. Remaining peak-season steering patterns, rapid intensification potential, and model consensus on westward-northwestward tracks introduce the key variables that could shift totals before the season ends.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年将有多少热带气旋在中国登陆？
2026年将有多少热带气旋在中国登陆？
7 23%
6 22%
5 18%
8 12%
最新
最新
2027-06-30
少于5个
4%
5
18%
6
19%
7
29%
8
26%
大于8
27%
7 23%
6 22%
5 18%
8 12%
最新
最新
2027-06-30
少于5个
$332 交易量
4%
5
$2,006 交易量
18%
6
$572 交易量
19%
7
$306 交易量
29%
8
$187 交易量
26%
大于8
$276 交易量
27%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).The elevated formation rate of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific, with 16 named storms by early August amid a developing El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole, forms the core driver of trader sentiment around 7–8+ landfalls in China. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others project 24–29 total systems for the basin—above the climatological norm—with 7–9 expected to strike the mainland, exceeding the typical 6–7 annual average. Multiple confirmed 2026 landfalls, including Maysak in Hainan, Noul and Bavi in southern and eastern provinces, and Dolphin in Zhejiang, plus stronger-than-average intensities observed, narrow probabilities between 7, 8, and greater than 8. Remaining peak-season steering patterns, rapid intensification potential, and model consensus on westward-northwestward tracks introduce the key variables that could shift totals before the season ends.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
市场开放时间： Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
交易量
$3,680结束日期
2027-06-30市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).The elevated formation rate of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific, with 16 named storms by early August amid a developing El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole, forms the core driver of trader sentiment around 7–8+ landfalls in China. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others project 24–29 total systems for the basin—above the climatological norm—with 7–9 expected to strike the mainland, exceeding the typical 6–7 annual average. Multiple confirmed 2026 landfalls, including Maysak in Hainan, Noul and Bavi in southern and eastern provinces, and Dolphin in Zhejiang, plus stronger-than-average intensities observed, narrow probabilities between 7, 8, and greater than 8. Remaining peak-season steering patterns, rapid intensification potential, and model consensus on westward-northwestward tracks introduce the key variables that could shift totals before the season ends.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
交易量
$3,680结束日期
2027-06-30市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETThe elevated formation rate of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific, with 16 named storms by early August amid a developing El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole, forms the core driver of trader sentiment around 7–8+ landfalls in China. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and others project 24–29 total systems for the basin—above the climatological norm—with 7–9 expected to strike the mainland, exceeding the typical 6–7 annual average. Multiple confirmed 2026 landfalls, including Maysak in Hainan, Noul and Bavi in southern and eastern provinces, and Dolphin in Zhejiang, plus stronger-than-average intensities observed, narrow probabilities between 7, 8, and greater than 8. Remaining peak-season steering patterns, rapid intensification potential, and model consensus on westward-northwestward tracks introduce the key variables that could shift totals before the season ends.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题