The Illinois 15th congressional district's strong Republican lean, demonstrated by consistent double-digit margins in recent House elections, has driven trader consensus toward a Republican victory. The seat's rural and suburban voter base in central and southern Illinois has shown limited Democratic support in statewide races, with no major primary challenges or candidate announcements altering the outlook ahead of the 2026 general election. Historical turnout patterns and limited campaign activity from Democratic contenders reinforce the current implied probability, though a late-cycle scandal, unexpected retirement, or national political shift could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$21,684 交易量
$21,684 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$21,684 交易量
$21,684 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$15,486 交易量
94%
民主党
$6,197 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 15th congressional district's strong Republican lean, demonstrated by consistent double-digit margins in recent House elections, has driven trader consensus toward a Republican victory. The seat's rural and suburban voter base in central and southern Illinois has shown limited Democratic support in statewide races, with no major primary challenges or candidate announcements altering the outlook ahead of the 2026 general election. Historical turnout patterns and limited campaign activity from Democratic contenders reinforce the current implied probability, though a late-cycle scandal, unexpected retirement, or national political shift could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$21,684结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 15th congressional district's strong Republican lean, demonstrated by consistent double-digit margins in recent House elections, has driven trader consensus toward a Republican victory. The seat's rural and suburban voter base in central and southern Illinois has shown limited Democratic support in statewide races, with no major primary challenges or candidate announcements altering the outlook ahead of the 2026 general election. Historical turnout patterns and limited campaign activity from Democratic contenders reinforce the current implied probability, though a late-cycle scandal, unexpected retirement, or national political shift could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$21,684结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 15th congressional district's strong Republican lean, demonstrated by consistent double-digit margins in recent House elections, has driven trader consensus toward a Republican victory. The seat's rural and suburban voter base in central and southern Illinois has shown limited Democratic support in statewide races, with no major primary challenges or candidate announcements altering the outlook ahead of the 2026 general election. Historical turnout patterns and limited campaign activity from Democratic contenders reinforce the current implied probability, though a late-cycle scandal, unexpected retirement, or national political shift could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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