Iranian Kurdish opposition groups formed a coalition in February 2026 to pursue self-determination and regime change amid ongoing unrest and external tensions, yet their stated objectives center on autonomy or federal arrangements within Iran rather than full secession. No formal declaration of independence has occurred in recent months, and major Kurdish factions have consistently framed their demands around internal governance reforms instead of territorial separation. Traders assign a 95.1% probability to “No” because historical patterns, limited cross-border coordination, and domestic Iranian resistance to fragmentation make outright independence highly improbable in the near term. The outcome could shift only if a sudden regime collapse enabled rapid territorial control by Kurdish forces, though even then international and internal opposition would likely constrain any move beyond limited autonomy.