Recent forecast models from sources including WeatherBug and AccuWeather consensus point to a September 1 minimum near 11°C in Cape Town under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions with light southerly winds, aligning closely with the 10–12°C climatological average low for early September. This scientific baseline, driven by typical spring transition patterns without strong cold fronts or anomalous cooling, positions mid-range buckets such as 10–12°C as probable while keeping very low outcomes (4°C or below) viable only under outlier model runs or localized microclimate effects. Short-term uncertainty in ensemble spreads and potential revisions from the South African Weather Service before resolution sustain trader focus on the lower tail, though probabilities for 14°C or higher remain minimal given the absence of warming signals.