Recent National Weather Service and ensemble forecasts indicate an overnight low near 63–65°F for New York City on September 20 amid a coastal low-pressure system and southeasterly flow. Persistent cloud cover, periods of rain, and elevated dew points are limiting radiational cooling while keeping surface temperatures from dropping sharply. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in the timing and intensity of precipitation, which can either enhance or suppress the minimum by a degree or two. Historical September climatology for Central Park shows typical overnight lows around 58–62°F, so the current pattern represents a modest warm anomaly that explains the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around the 62–67°F bins. Updated model runs and official forecast discussions expected over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the precise minimum.