Recent model consensus from sources including Météo-France-aligned forecasts and GFS runs points to a minimum of 13°C in Paris on September 20, 2026, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge with light westerly winds, partly cloudy skies, and clear overnight conditions that promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 23–24°C. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-September and explains the market's 96% implied probability on 13°C. A shift to thicker cloud cover or stronger winds could raise the minimum by limiting heat loss, while unexpectedly clear, calm conditions might allow a dip toward 12°C or lower, though current observations show limited divergence among models.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月20日巴黎最低气温？
9月20日巴黎最低气温？
13°C 96%
12°C 48%
11°C 15%
10°C或以下 2%
$16,326 交易量
$16,326 交易量
2026-09-20
10°C或以下
2%
11°C
15%
12°C
48%
13°C
96%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C或更高
<1%
13°C 96%
12°C 48%
11°C 15%
10°C或以下 2%
$16,326 交易量
$16,326 交易量
2026-09-20
10°C或以下
$16 交易量
2%
11°C
$66 交易量
15%
12°C
$243 交易量
48%
13°C
$2,197 交易量
96%
14°C
$10,347 交易量
<1%
15°C
$3,057 交易量
<1%
16°C
$246 交易量
<1%
17°C
$31 交易量
<1%
18°C
$41 交易量
<1%
19°C
$41 交易量
<1%
20°C或更高
$41 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including Météo-France-aligned forecasts and GFS runs points to a minimum of 13°C in Paris on September 20, 2026, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge with light westerly winds, partly cloudy skies, and clear overnight conditions that promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 23–24°C. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-September and explains the market's 96% implied probability on 13°C. A shift to thicker cloud cover or stronger winds could raise the minimum by limiting heat loss, while unexpectedly clear, calm conditions might allow a dip toward 12°C or lower, though current observations show limited divergence among models.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$16,326结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including Météo-France-aligned forecasts and GFS runs points to a minimum of 13°C in Paris on September 20, 2026, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge with light westerly winds, partly cloudy skies, and clear overnight conditions that promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 23–24°C. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-September and explains the market's 96% implied probability on 13°C. A shift to thicker cloud cover or stronger winds could raise the minimum by limiting heat loss, while unexpectedly clear, calm conditions might allow a dip toward 12°C or lower, though current observations show limited divergence among models.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$16,326结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRecent model consensus from sources including Météo-France-aligned forecasts and GFS runs points to a minimum of 13°C in Paris on September 20, 2026, driven by a stable high-pressure ridge with light westerly winds, partly cloudy skies, and clear overnight conditions that promote radiative cooling after daytime highs near 23–24°C. This aligns with seasonal norms for mid-September and explains the market's 96% implied probability on 13°C. A shift to thicker cloud cover or stronger winds could raise the minimum by limiting heat loss, while unexpectedly clear, calm conditions might allow a dip toward 12°C or lower, though current observations show limited divergence among models.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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