Recent INMET guidance and ensemble model consensus point to modest cold advection ahead of an oceanic cold front, anchoring São Paulo’s official overnight low near 11–12°C at stations such as Mirante de Santana. Clear skies overnight favor enhanced radiative cooling, while the urban heat island and any light variable winds or showers can limit further drops, producing tight differentiation among the 11°C, 12°C, and 14°C-or-higher bins that together hold over 95% of market-implied probability. Historical August climatology near 11–13°C provides context, yet small shifts in subsidence strength, frontal timing, or boundary-layer moisture can still swing the final minimum by 1–2°C before resolution. Updated morning model runs and the next INMET briefing remain the key near-term catalysts for traders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月22日圣保罗的最低温度？
8月22日圣保罗的最低温度？
12°C 56%
10°C 31%
14°C或更高 31%
8°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-22
4°C或以下
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
3%
9°C
2%
10°C
31%
11°C
33%
12°C
40%
13°C
31%
14°C或更高
31%
12°C 56%
10°C 31%
14°C或更高 31%
8°C 3%
最新
最新
2026-08-22
4°C或以下
$137 交易量
<1%
5°C
$127 交易量
<1%
6°C
$132 交易量
<1%
7°C
$147 交易量
1%
8°C
$85 交易量
3%
9°C
$92 交易量
2%
10°C
$0 交易量
31%
11°C
$18 交易量
33%
12°C
$37 交易量
40%
13°C
$18 交易量
31%
14°C或更高
$0 交易量
31%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent INMET guidance and ensemble model consensus point to modest cold advection ahead of an oceanic cold front, anchoring São Paulo’s official overnight low near 11–12°C at stations such as Mirante de Santana. Clear skies overnight favor enhanced radiative cooling, while the urban heat island and any light variable winds or showers can limit further drops, producing tight differentiation among the 11°C, 12°C, and 14°C-or-higher bins that together hold over 95% of market-implied probability. Historical August climatology near 11–13°C provides context, yet small shifts in subsidence strength, frontal timing, or boundary-layer moisture can still swing the final minimum by 1–2°C before resolution. Updated morning model runs and the next INMET briefing remain the key near-term catalysts for traders.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
交易量
$793结束日期
2026-08-22市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent INMET guidance and ensemble model consensus point to modest cold advection ahead of an oceanic cold front, anchoring São Paulo’s official overnight low near 11–12°C at stations such as Mirante de Santana. Clear skies overnight favor enhanced radiative cooling, while the urban heat island and any light variable winds or showers can limit further drops, producing tight differentiation among the 11°C, 12°C, and 14°C-or-higher bins that together hold over 95% of market-implied probability. Historical August climatology near 11–13°C provides context, yet small shifts in subsidence strength, frontal timing, or boundary-layer moisture can still swing the final minimum by 1–2°C before resolution. Updated morning model runs and the next INMET briefing remain the key near-term catalysts for traders.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$793结束日期
2026-08-22市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETRecent INMET guidance and ensemble model consensus point to modest cold advection ahead of an oceanic cold front, anchoring São Paulo’s official overnight low near 11–12°C at stations such as Mirante de Santana. Clear skies overnight favor enhanced radiative cooling, while the urban heat island and any light variable winds or showers can limit further drops, producing tight differentiation among the 11°C, 12°C, and 14°C-or-higher bins that together hold over 95% of market-implied probability. Historical August climatology near 11–13°C provides context, yet small shifts in subsidence strength, frontal timing, or boundary-layer moisture can still swing the final minimum by 1–2°C before resolution. Updated morning model runs and the next INMET briefing remain the key near-term catalysts for traders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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