Trader sentiment for Warsaw's September 20 minimum temperature reflects model uncertainty over a potential frontal passage and air mass shift, with 11°C-or-below and 21°C-or-higher outcomes nearly tied near 49% and 46% implied probability. Ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS diverge on the strength of northerly advection versus lingering Atlantic influence, directly affecting nocturnal radiational cooling under variable cloud cover and wind speeds. Historical September lows average near 12°C, but recent warm anomalies and unsettled patterns heighten variability. Key upcoming drivers include refreshed high-resolution model guidance and IMGW observational updates through the weekend, which could clarify whether conditions favor rapid cooling or moderated temperatures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月20日华沙最低气温？
9月20日华沙最低气温？
11°C或以下 97%
21°C或更高 93%
19°C 38%
20°C 38%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
11°C或以下
97%
12°C
21%
13°C
30%
14°C
22%
15°C
37%
16°C
37%
17°C
37%
18°C
37%
19°C
38%
20°C
38%
21°C或更高
93%
11°C或以下 97%
21°C或更高 93%
19°C 38%
20°C 38%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
11°C或以下
$0 交易量
97%
12°C
$0 交易量
21%
13°C
$0 交易量
30%
14°C
$24 交易量
22%
15°C
$0 交易量
37%
16°C
$0 交易量
37%
17°C
$0 交易量
37%
18°C
$0 交易量
37%
19°C
$0 交易量
38%
20°C
$0 交易量
38%
21°C或更高
$0 交易量
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Warsaw's September 20 minimum temperature reflects model uncertainty over a potential frontal passage and air mass shift, with 11°C-or-below and 21°C-or-higher outcomes nearly tied near 49% and 46% implied probability. Ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS diverge on the strength of northerly advection versus lingering Atlantic influence, directly affecting nocturnal radiational cooling under variable cloud cover and wind speeds. Historical September lows average near 12°C, but recent warm anomalies and unsettled patterns heighten variability. Key upcoming drivers include refreshed high-resolution model guidance and IMGW observational updates through the weekend, which could clarify whether conditions favor rapid cooling or moderated temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$24结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader sentiment for Warsaw's September 20 minimum temperature reflects model uncertainty over a potential frontal passage and air mass shift, with 11°C-or-below and 21°C-or-higher outcomes nearly tied near 49% and 46% implied probability. Ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS diverge on the strength of northerly advection versus lingering Atlantic influence, directly affecting nocturnal radiational cooling under variable cloud cover and wind speeds. Historical September lows average near 12°C, but recent warm anomalies and unsettled patterns heighten variability. Key upcoming drivers include refreshed high-resolution model guidance and IMGW observational updates through the weekend, which could clarify whether conditions favor rapid cooling or moderated temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$24结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTrader sentiment for Warsaw's September 20 minimum temperature reflects model uncertainty over a potential frontal passage and air mass shift, with 11°C-or-below and 21°C-or-higher outcomes nearly tied near 49% and 46% implied probability. Ensemble runs from ECMWF and GFS diverge on the strength of northerly advection versus lingering Atlantic influence, directly affecting nocturnal radiational cooling under variable cloud cover and wind speeds. Historical September lows average near 12°C, but recent warm anomalies and unsettled patterns heighten variability. Key upcoming drivers include refreshed high-resolution model guidance and IMGW observational updates through the weekend, which could clarify whether conditions favor rapid cooling or moderated temperatures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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