Traders are pricing Mexico's Q2 2026 GDP growth most heavily toward the 0.0-0.5% range at 47% implied probability, reflecting the economy's 0.8% contraction in Q1 and softening momentum in manufacturing and remittances. The closely contested 1.5-2.0% bucket at 39% highlights uncertainty around the strength of U.S. demand and nearshoring inflows, which could support a modest rebound if industrial production stabilizes. Recent April inflation at 4.4% year-over-year and a low 2.4% unemployment rate suggest contained labor market pressure but persistent price risks that may limit Bank of Mexico easing. Upcoming monthly indicators through June, including industrial output and trade data, represent key swing factors that could shift consensus between subdued expansion and a faster recovery.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于-0.5-0.0% 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 44%
1.0-1.5% 27%
最新
最新
2026-07-30
<-0.5%
24%
-0.5-0.0%
28%
0.0-0.5%
44%
0.5-1.0%
28%
1.0-1.5%
27%
1.5-2.0%
44%
2.0-2.5%
11%
2.5%+
11%
-0.5-0.0% 51%
0.5-1.0% 48%
1.5-2.0% 44%
1.0-1.5% 27%
最新
最新
2026-07-30
<-0.5%
$4 交易量
24%
-0.5-0.0%
$24 交易量
28%
0.0-0.5%
$11 交易量
44%
0.5-1.0%
$6 交易量
28%
1.0-1.5%
$2 交易量
27%
1.5-2.0%
$0 交易量
44%
2.0-2.5%
$0 交易量
11%
2.5%+
$0 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders are pricing Mexico's Q2 2026 GDP growth most heavily toward the 0.0-0.5% range at 47% implied probability, reflecting the economy's 0.8% contraction in Q1 and softening momentum in manufacturing and remittances. The closely contested 1.5-2.0% bucket at 39% highlights uncertainty around the strength of U.S. demand and nearshoring inflows, which could support a modest rebound if industrial production stabilizes. Recent April inflation at 4.4% year-over-year and a low 2.4% unemployment rate suggest contained labor market pressure but persistent price risks that may limit Bank of Mexico easing. Upcoming monthly indicators through June, including industrial output and trade data, represent key swing factors that could shift consensus between subdued expansion and a faster recovery.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
交易量
$47结束日期
2026-07-30市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders are pricing Mexico's Q2 2026 GDP growth most heavily toward the 0.0-0.5% range at 47% implied probability, reflecting the economy's 0.8% contraction in Q1 and softening momentum in manufacturing and remittances. The closely contested 1.5-2.0% bucket at 39% highlights uncertainty around the strength of U.S. demand and nearshoring inflows, which could support a modest rebound if industrial production stabilizes. Recent April inflation at 4.4% year-over-year and a low 2.4% unemployment rate suggest contained labor market pressure but persistent price risks that may limit Bank of Mexico easing. Upcoming monthly indicators through June, including industrial output and trade data, represent key swing factors that could shift consensus between subdued expansion and a faster recovery.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$47结束日期
2026-07-30市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing Mexico's Q2 2026 GDP growth most heavily toward the 0.0-0.5% range at 47% implied probability, reflecting the economy's 0.8% contraction in Q1 and softening momentum in manufacturing and remittances. The closely contested 1.5-2.0% bucket at 39% highlights uncertainty around the strength of U.S. demand and nearshoring inflows, which could support a modest rebound if industrial production stabilizes. Recent April inflation at 4.4% year-over-year and a low 2.4% unemployment rate suggest contained labor market pressure but persistent price risks that may limit Bank of Mexico easing. Upcoming monthly indicators through June, including industrial output and trade data, represent key swing factors that could shift consensus between subdued expansion and a faster recovery.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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