The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The fragmented field ahead of France’s 2027 presidential election keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered, with Jordan Bardella at 22.5 percent and Édouard Philippe at 19.5 percent reflecting trader consensus on a narrow path to consolidation. Bardella benefits from National Rally’s sustained first-round polling lead and Marine Le Pen’s ongoing legal uncertainty, yet faces a divided center-right where Philippe’s recent campaign launch and mayoral record position him as the strongest potential runoff opponent. Additional contenders including Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon further split opposition votes, sustaining volatility until clearer alliances or major polling shifts emerge in the coming months.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The fragmented field ahead of France’s 2027 presidential election keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered, with Jordan Bardella at 22.5 percent and Édouard Philippe at 19.5 percent reflecting trader consensus on a narrow path to consolidation. Bardella benefits from National Rally’s sustained first-round polling lead and Marine Le Pen’s ongoing legal uncertainty, yet faces a divided center-right where Philippe’s recent campaign launch and mayoral record position him as the strongest potential runoff opponent. Additional contenders including Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon further split opposition votes, sustaining volatility until clearer alliances or major polling shifts emerge in the coming months.
Paris appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial
Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%
The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices.
Jan 14 2026
Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, putting 2027 presidential bid at risk
Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%
Marine Le Pen began her appeal trial against a conviction for misusing EU funds, with the outcome potentially barring her from running in the 2027 presidential election. This legal uncertainty led to a decline in her market price and increased interest in her protege Jordan Bardella as a possible replacement candidate.
Jan 14 2026
Jordan Bardella criticizes Trump’s Greenland policy, signaling political distancing
Jordan Bardella jumps to 31%5%
Jordan Bardella publicly denounced U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to Greenland, calling it 'commercial blackmail' and warning against subjugation. This move indicated Bardella’s effort to assert an independent nationalist stance, which helped maintain his market support amid Le Pen’s legal troubles.
Jan 7 2026
Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, threatening her 2027 presidential bid
Marine Le Pen drops to 7%9%
Marine Le Pen appeared in court to appeal her conviction for misusing EU funds, with a potential ban from holding office that could prevent her from running in 2027. This legal uncertainty caused her market price to drop sharply, while Jordan Bardella's price rose as he was seen as the likely successor.
Jan 1 2026
Jordan Bardella distances himself from Trump over Greenland tariff dispute
Jordan Bardella drops to 26%5%
Jordan Bardella criticized U.S. President Trump's Greenland tariff threats, signaling a shift in his stance and possibly affecting his support among nationalist voters, reflected in minor price fluctuations.
Nov 14 2025
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins in Paris over EU funds misuse
Marine Le Pen drops to 11%5%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial opened, raising questions about her eligibility for the 2027 presidential race. The trial's outcome could bar her from running, causing market uncertainty and impacting her and Jordan Bardella's prices.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The fragmented field ahead of France’s 2027 presidential election keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered, with Jordan Bardella at 22.5 percent and Édouard Philippe at 19.5 percent reflecting trader consensus on a narrow path to consolidation. Bardella benefits from National Rally’s sustained first-round polling lead and Marine Le Pen’s ongoing legal uncertainty, yet faces a divided center-right where Philippe’s recent campaign launch and mayoral record position him as the strongest potential runoff opponent. Additional contenders including Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon further split opposition votes, sustaining volatility until clearer alliances or major polling shifts emerge in the coming months.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The fragmented field ahead of France’s 2027 presidential election keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered, with Jordan Bardella at 22.5 percent and Édouard Philippe at 19.5 percent reflecting trader consensus on a narrow path to consolidation. Bardella benefits from National Rally’s sustained first-round polling lead and Marine Le Pen’s ongoing legal uncertainty, yet faces a divided center-right where Philippe’s recent campaign launch and mayoral record position him as the strongest potential runoff opponent. Additional contenders including Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon further split opposition votes, sustaining volatility until clearer alliances or major polling shifts emerge in the coming months.
Paris appeals court sets July 7 verdict date for Marine Le Pen's appeal trial
Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%
The court announced the verdict date for Le Pen's appeal trial, heightening uncertainty about her presidential bid and boosting Bardella's prospects as her potential replacement, impacting their market prices.
Jan 14 2026
Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, putting 2027 presidential bid at risk
Marine Le Pen drops to 9%7%
Marine Le Pen began her appeal trial against a conviction for misusing EU funds, with the outcome potentially barring her from running in the 2027 presidential election. This legal uncertainty led to a decline in her market price and increased interest in her protege Jordan Bardella as a possible replacement candidate.
Jan 14 2026
Jordan Bardella criticizes Trump’s Greenland policy, signaling political distancing
Jordan Bardella jumps to 31%5%
Jordan Bardella publicly denounced U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach to Greenland, calling it 'commercial blackmail' and warning against subjugation. This move indicated Bardella’s effort to assert an independent nationalist stance, which helped maintain his market support amid Le Pen’s legal troubles.
Jan 7 2026
Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris, threatening her 2027 presidential bid
Marine Le Pen drops to 7%9%
Marine Le Pen appeared in court to appeal her conviction for misusing EU funds, with a potential ban from holding office that could prevent her from running in 2027. This legal uncertainty caused her market price to drop sharply, while Jordan Bardella's price rose as he was seen as the likely successor.
Jan 1 2026
Jordan Bardella distances himself from Trump over Greenland tariff dispute
Jordan Bardella drops to 26%5%
Jordan Bardella criticized U.S. President Trump's Greenland tariff threats, signaling a shift in his stance and possibly affecting his support among nationalist voters, reflected in minor price fluctuations.
Nov 14 2025
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial begins in Paris over EU funds misuse
Marine Le Pen drops to 11%5%
Marine Le Pen's appeal trial opened, raising questions about her eligibility for the 2027 presidential race. The trial's outcome could bar her from running, causing market uncertainty and impacting her and Jordan Bardella's prices.
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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