Russia maintains firm centralized control under President Vladimir Putin ahead of the September 18–20 State Duma elections, with United Russia positioned to secure a strong majority through managed voting and limited opposition. No verified coup attempt or coordinated elite challenge has emerged despite reported internal security service frictions, declining approval ratings around 65–70 percent, and elite dissatisfaction tied to the Ukraine war's economic and military costs. Kremlin measures, including tightened personal security and tolerance of limited loyalist criticism, have contained tensions without evidence of organized dissent reaching coup thresholds. Traders assign a 94.5 percent probability to no attempt, reflecting the absence of disruptive developments that would signal regime instability within the 2026 timeframe.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6% 概率
$131,532 交易量
$131,532 交易量
2026-12-31
6% 概率
$131,532 交易量
$131,532 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains firm centralized control under President Vladimir Putin ahead of the September 18–20 State Duma elections, with United Russia positioned to secure a strong majority through managed voting and limited opposition. No verified coup attempt or coordinated elite challenge has emerged despite reported internal security service frictions, declining approval ratings around 65–70 percent, and elite dissatisfaction tied to the Ukraine war's economic and military costs. Kremlin measures, including tightened personal security and tolerance of limited loyalist criticism, have contained tensions without evidence of organized dissent reaching coup thresholds. Traders assign a 94.5 percent probability to no attempt, reflecting the absence of disruptive developments that would signal regime instability within the 2026 timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
交易量
$131,532结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia maintains firm centralized control under President Vladimir Putin ahead of the September 18–20 State Duma elections, with United Russia positioned to secure a strong majority through managed voting and limited opposition. No verified coup attempt or coordinated elite challenge has emerged despite reported internal security service frictions, declining approval ratings around 65–70 percent, and elite dissatisfaction tied to the Ukraine war's economic and military costs. Kremlin measures, including tightened personal security and tolerance of limited loyalist criticism, have contained tensions without evidence of organized dissent reaching coup thresholds. Traders assign a 94.5 percent probability to no attempt, reflecting the absence of disruptive developments that would signal regime instability within the 2026 timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$131,532结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETRussia maintains firm centralized control under President Vladimir Putin ahead of the September 18–20 State Duma elections, with United Russia positioned to secure a strong majority through managed voting and limited opposition. No verified coup attempt or coordinated elite challenge has emerged despite reported internal security service frictions, declining approval ratings around 65–70 percent, and elite dissatisfaction tied to the Ukraine war's economic and military costs. Kremlin measures, including tightened personal security and tolerance of limited loyalist criticism, have contained tensions without evidence of organized dissent reaching coup thresholds. Traders assign a 94.5 percent probability to no attempt, reflecting the absence of disruptive developments that would signal regime instability within the 2026 timeframe.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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