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icon for 美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？
经济·Jerome Powell

美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？

icon for 美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？
经济·Jerome Powell

美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？

$1,846,403 交易量

2026-12-30
Polymarket

$1,846,403 交易量

Polymarket

↑ 5.5%

$55,489 交易量

3%

↑ 5.25%

$142,579 交易量

3%

↑ 5.0%

$19,789 交易量

2%

↑ 4.75%

$80,664 交易量

4%

↑ 4.5%

$40,929 交易量

29%

↑ 4.25%

$130,161 交易量

82%

↓ 3.25%

$81,643 交易量

4%

↓ 3.0%

$320,110 交易量

2%

↓ 2.75%

$366,465 交易量

2%

↓ 2.5%

$225,788 交易量

1%

↓ 2.25%

$41,840 交易量

2%

↓ 2.0%

$21,380 交易量

3%

↓ 1.75%

$13,136 交易量

1%

↓ 1.5%

$28,330 交易量

2%

↓ 1.25%

$5,186 交易量

2%

↓ 1.0%

$2,331 交易量

3%

↓ 0.75%

$741 交易量

1%

↓ 0.5%

$107,217 交易量

3%

↓ 0.25%

$132,417 交易量

2%

↓ 0%

$21,203 交易量

2%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target federal funds range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, 2026, its first hike since 2023, citing elevated inflation and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Updated dot plots indicate a median expectation for one additional 25-basis-point increase by year-end, holding the policy rate near 4.1% through 2027 before modest easing in 2028. Market-implied odds on related prediction platforms assign high probability to the upper bound reaching 4.25% before 2027, while deeper cuts remain discounted. Key near-term catalysts include the October and December FOMC meetings, upcoming CPI and employment releases, and any shifts in Treasury yields or inflation trajectory that could alter the tightening path.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
交易量
$1,846,403
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

结算方

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target federal funds range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, 2026, its first hike since 2023, citing elevated inflation and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1%. Updated dot plots indicate a median expectation for one additional 25-basis-point increase by year-end, holding the policy rate near 4.1% through 2027 before modest easing in 2028. Market-implied odds on related prediction platforms assign high probability to the upper bound reaching 4.25% before 2027, while deeper cuts remain discounted. Key near-term catalysts include the October and December FOMC meetings, upcoming CPI and employment releases, and any shifts in Treasury yields or inflation trajectory that could alter the tightening path.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
交易量
$1,846,403
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

结算方

0x65070BE91...

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常见问题

"美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 21 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"↓ 3.5%"，概率为 100%，其次是"↑ 4.25%"，概率为 82%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？"已产生 $1.8 million 的总交易量（自Nov 18, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 21 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？"的当前领先者是"↓ 3.5%"，概率为 100%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"↑ 4.25%"，概率为 82%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"美联储利率将在2027年之前达到什么水平？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。