Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no settlement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman at 78% implied probability, driven by the conclusion of closing arguments yesterday in their high-stakes federal trial over OpenAI's shift from nonprofit to for-profit structure. Musk's lawyers hammered Altman's credibility, citing emails and testimony revealing Musk's early demands for 90% control and inheritance rights for his children, while OpenAI countered that no binding agreement existed and Musk knew of commercialization plans. A last-ditch settlement overture from Musk to OpenAI President Greg Brockman two days pre-trial failed, underscoring entrenched positions amid xAI-OpenAI rivalry. Jury deliberations begin Monday, with a verdict imminent that could award Musk up to $150 billion in damages or unwind OpenAI's model, leaving little room for compromise.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no settlement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman at 78% implied probability, driven by the conclusion of closing arguments yesterday in their high-stakes federal trial over OpenAI's shift from nonprofit to for-profit structure. Musk's lawyers hammered Altman's credibility, citing emails and testimony revealing Musk's early demands for 90% control and inheritance rights for his children, while OpenAI countered that no binding agreement existed and Musk knew of commercialization plans. A last-ditch settlement overture from Musk to OpenAI President Greg Brockman two days pre-trial failed, underscoring entrenched positions amid xAI-OpenAI rivalry. Jury deliberations begin Monday, with a verdict imminent that could award Musk up to $150 billion in damages or unwind OpenAI's model, leaving little room for compromise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
交易量
$9,846结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no settlement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman at 78% implied probability, driven by the conclusion of closing arguments yesterday in their high-stakes federal trial over OpenAI's shift from nonprofit to for-profit structure. Musk's lawyers hammered Altman's credibility, citing emails and testimony revealing Musk's early demands for 90% control and inheritance rights for his children, while OpenAI countered that no binding agreement existed and Musk knew of commercialization plans. A last-ditch settlement overture from Musk to OpenAI President Greg Brockman two days pre-trial failed, underscoring entrenched positions amid xAI-OpenAI rivalry. Jury deliberations begin Monday, with a verdict imminent that could award Musk up to $150 billion in damages or unwind OpenAI's model, leaving little room for compromise.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman in Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), are settled by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A settlement refers to an agreement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman that resolves all claims between them in this case, whether through a formal settlement agreement, stipulated dismissal, or other court-recognized resolution indicating that the claims between these two parties have been resolved. Announcements of such a settlement will qualify, regardless of whether final paperwork is completed or court approval occurs after the deadline.
Settlements involving other parties (e.g., OpenAI or any additional defendants) will not count unless they also resolve all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
If all claims between Elon Musk and Sam Altman are resolved through a final court judgment (e.g., trial verdict or dispositive ruling), or through a unilateral dismissal of claims not constituting a settlement, before any qualifying settlement occurs, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system (including filings, orders, or docket updates). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$9,846结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no settlement between Elon Musk and Sam Altman at 78% implied probability, driven by the conclusion of closing arguments yesterday in their high-stakes federal trial over OpenAI's shift from nonprofit to for-profit structure. Musk's lawyers hammered Altman's credibility, citing emails and testimony revealing Musk's early demands for 90% control and inheritance rights for his children, while OpenAI countered that no binding agreement existed and Musk knew of commercialization plans. A last-ditch settlement overture from Musk to OpenAI President Greg Brockman two days pre-trial failed, underscoring entrenched positions amid xAI-OpenAI rivalry. Jury deliberations begin Monday, with a verdict imminent that could award Musk up to $150 billion in damages or unwind OpenAI's model, leaving little room for compromise.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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