Trader consensus reflects a 71.5% implied probability against a US invasion of Iran before 2027, anchored by the Trump administration's emphasis on airstrikes, naval blockades of Iranian ports, and Strait of Hormuz operations over ground troop commitments following February's US-Israeli strikes that hit over 2,000 targets. Recent tit-for-tat exchanges—including US retaliatory attacks on May 7 after Iranian assaults on warships—have tested a fragile ceasefire without prompting invasion plans, as officials signal no immediate ground escalation amid diplomatic pushes like Iran's 14-point war-end proposal and Trump's emergency meetings. Ongoing talks, military testimonies on controlled escalation, and aversion to Iraq-style quagmires amid Iran's terrain and proxy defenses sustain the "No" lead, though Trump-Xi summit outcomes could shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$28,047,385 交易量
$28,047,385 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$28,047,385 交易量
$28,047,385 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus reflects a 71.5% implied probability against a US invasion of Iran before 2027, anchored by the Trump administration's emphasis on airstrikes, naval blockades of Iranian ports, and Strait of Hormuz operations over ground troop commitments following February's US-Israeli strikes that hit over 2,000 targets. Recent tit-for-tat exchanges—including US retaliatory attacks on May 7 after Iranian assaults on warships—have tested a fragile ceasefire without prompting invasion plans, as officials signal no immediate ground escalation amid diplomatic pushes like Iran's 14-point war-end proposal and Trump's emergency meetings. Ongoing talks, military testimonies on controlled escalation, and aversion to Iraq-style quagmires amid Iran's terrain and proxy defenses sustain the "No" lead, though Trump-Xi summit outcomes could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
交易量
$28,047,385结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Trader consensus reflects a 71.5% implied probability against a US invasion of Iran before 2027, anchored by the Trump administration's emphasis on airstrikes, naval blockades of Iranian ports, and Strait of Hormuz operations over ground troop commitments following February's US-Israeli strikes that hit over 2,000 targets. Recent tit-for-tat exchanges—including US retaliatory attacks on May 7 after Iranian assaults on warships—have tested a fragile ceasefire without prompting invasion plans, as officials signal no immediate ground escalation amid diplomatic pushes like Iran's 14-point war-end proposal and Trump's emergency meetings. Ongoing talks, military testimonies on controlled escalation, and aversion to Iraq-style quagmires amid Iran's terrain and proxy defenses sustain the "No" lead, though Trump-Xi summit outcomes could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$28,047,421结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 71.5% implied probability against a US invasion of Iran before 2027, anchored by the Trump administration's emphasis on airstrikes, naval blockades of Iranian ports, and Strait of Hormuz operations over ground troop commitments following February's US-Israeli strikes that hit over 2,000 targets. Recent tit-for-tat exchanges—including US retaliatory attacks on May 7 after Iranian assaults on warships—have tested a fragile ceasefire without prompting invasion plans, as officials signal no immediate ground escalation amid diplomatic pushes like Iran's 14-point war-end proposal and Trump's emergency meetings. Ongoing talks, military testimonies on controlled escalation, and aversion to Iraq-style quagmires amid Iran's terrain and proxy defenses sustain the "No" lead, though Trump-Xi summit outcomes could shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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