The Workers’ Party’s April 26 national congress, which approved a manifesto prioritizing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election bid and directed party president Edinho Silva to build alliances around his candidacy, forms the core driver of the 85.5% implied probability for formal nomination by the August 15 deadline. Lula’s March 31 confirmation of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate, his public calls for a sharper campaign plan, and the absence of credible internal alternatives reinforce party unity ahead of the October 4, 2026 general election. Party conventions scheduled between July 20 and August 5, followed by the Superior Electoral Court’s August 1 candidate registration window, position the process as largely procedural barring unforeseen health or coalition setbacks, aligning trader consensus with these institutional steps and Lula’s incumbency advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$11,224 交易量
$11,224 交易量
2026-08-15
是
$11,224 交易量
$11,224 交易量
2026-08-15
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Workers’ Party’s April 26 national congress, which approved a manifesto prioritizing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election bid and directed party president Edinho Silva to build alliances around his candidacy, forms the core driver of the 85.5% implied probability for formal nomination by the August 15 deadline. Lula’s March 31 confirmation of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate, his public calls for a sharper campaign plan, and the absence of credible internal alternatives reinforce party unity ahead of the October 4, 2026 general election. Party conventions scheduled between July 20 and August 5, followed by the Superior Electoral Court’s August 1 candidate registration window, position the process as largely procedural barring unforeseen health or coalition setbacks, aligning trader consensus with these institutional steps and Lula’s incumbency advantage.
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 17, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
交易量
$11,224结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Apr 17, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Workers’ Party’s April 26 national congress, which approved a manifesto prioritizing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election bid and directed party president Edinho Silva to build alliances around his candidacy, forms the core driver of the 85.5% implied probability for formal nomination by the August 15 deadline. Lula’s March 31 confirmation of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate, his public calls for a sharper campaign plan, and the absence of credible internal alternatives reinforce party unity ahead of the October 4, 2026 general election. Party conventions scheduled between July 20 and August 5, followed by the Superior Electoral Court’s August 1 candidate registration window, position the process as largely procedural barring unforeseen health or coalition setbacks, aligning trader consensus with these institutional steps and Lula’s incumbency advantage.
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$11,224结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Apr 17, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Workers’ Party’s April 26 national congress, which approved a manifesto prioritizing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election bid and directed party president Edinho Silva to build alliances around his candidacy, forms the core driver of the 85.5% implied probability for formal nomination by the August 15 deadline. Lula’s March 31 confirmation of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as running mate, his public calls for a sharper campaign plan, and the absence of credible internal alternatives reinforce party unity ahead of the October 4, 2026 general election. Party conventions scheduled between July 20 and August 5, followed by the Superior Electoral Court’s August 1 candidate registration window, position the process as largely procedural barring unforeseen health or coalition setbacks, aligning trader consensus with these institutional steps and Lula’s incumbency advantage.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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