No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in the first five months of 2026, despite ongoing activity at dozens of volcanoes worldwide. Historical records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and USGS show that large explosive events with tephra volumes exceeding 0.1 km³ occur on average only a few times per decade, with frequency remaining stable over the past century. Current monitoring indicates elevated unrest at sites like Axial Seamount and Iceland’s Svartsengi system, where magma accumulation continues, but no rapid intensification or new Plinian-style outbursts have materialized. Official alerts from agencies such as the Alaska Volcano Observatory and Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi reflect only moderate levels, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward zero or one such eruption by year-end while leaving room for late-year developments to shift probabilities.