Tight monetary policy, with the Selic rate held near 15% since mid-2025, has tightened credit conditions and tempered domestic demand, anchoring the market-implied odds for Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth at 42% for the 1.5%–1.8% band and 37.5% for the adjacent 1.9%–2.2% range. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus of 1.7%–1.9% support this clustering, while fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit have lifted recent retail sales and PMI readings enough to keep the two leading outcomes closely matched. Traders are weighing these countervailing forces ahead of the May 29 IBGE release, which will resolve the market based on official year-over-year data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertBrasilianisches BIP-Wachstum in Q1 2026?
Brasilianisches BIP-Wachstum in Q1 2026?
1,9 %–2,2 % 37.5%
1,5 %–1,8 % 37%
1,1 %–1,4 % 5.9%
2,3 %–2,6 % 5.1%
$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
29. Mai 2026
<0,7 %
3%
0,7 %–1,0 %
2%
1,1 %–1,4 %
6%
1,5 %–1,8 %
37%
1,9 %–2,2 %
38%
2,3 %–2,6 %
18%
≥2,7 %
3%
1,9 %–2,2 % 37.5%
1,5 %–1,8 % 37%
1,1 %–1,4 % 5.9%
2,3 %–2,6 % 5.1%
$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
29. Mai 2026
<0,7 %
$14,390 Vol.
3%
0,7 %–1,0 %
$661 Vol.
2%
1,1 %–1,4 %
$720 Vol.
6%
1,5 %–1,8 %
$1,045 Vol.
37%
1,9 %–2,2 %
$1,635 Vol.
38%
2,3 %–2,6 %
$732 Vol.
18%
≥2,7 %
$1,827 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTight monetary policy, with the Selic rate held near 15% since mid-2025, has tightened credit conditions and tempered domestic demand, anchoring the market-implied odds for Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth at 42% for the 1.5%–1.8% band and 37.5% for the adjacent 1.9%–2.2% range. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus of 1.7%–1.9% support this clustering, while fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit have lifted recent retail sales and PMI readings enough to keep the two leading outcomes closely matched. Traders are weighing these countervailing forces ahead of the May 29 IBGE release, which will resolve the market based on official year-over-year data.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volumen
$21,009Enddatum
29. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTight monetary policy, with the Selic rate held near 15% since mid-2025, has tightened credit conditions and tempered domestic demand, anchoring the market-implied odds for Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth at 42% for the 1.5%–1.8% band and 37.5% for the adjacent 1.9%–2.2% range. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus of 1.7%–1.9% support this clustering, while fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit have lifted recent retail sales and PMI readings enough to keep the two leading outcomes closely matched. Traders are weighing these countervailing forces ahead of the May 29 IBGE release, which will resolve the market based on official year-over-year data.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$21,009Enddatum
29. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight monetary policy, with the Selic rate held near 15% since mid-2025, has tightened credit conditions and tempered domestic demand, anchoring the market-implied odds for Brazil Q1 2026 GDP growth at 42% for the 1.5%–1.8% band and 37.5% for the adjacent 1.9%–2.2% range. Full-year consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus of 1.7%–1.9% support this clustering, while fiscal measures such as minimum-wage increases and expanded credit have lifted recent retail sales and PMI readings enough to keep the two leading outcomes closely matched. Traders are weighing these countervailing forces ahead of the May 29 IBGE release, which will resolve the market based on official year-over-year data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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