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icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Amapá
Politik·Brasilien

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Amapá

icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Amapá
Politik·Brasilien

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Amapá

Lula 65%

Flavio Bolsonaro 25%

Rui Costa Pimenta 4.3%

Hertz Dias 3.5%

Polymarket
NEU

Lula 65%

Flavio Bolsonaro 25%

Rui Costa Pimenta 4.3%

Hertz Dias 3.5%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Lula

Lula

$917 Vol.

65%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$1,010 Vol.

25%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$468 Vol.

4%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$529 Vol.

3%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$785 Vol.

3%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$195 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$181 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$699 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$431 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$462 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$398 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$479 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$534 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the clearest edge in Amapá first-round voting intentions at 64.5 percent implied probability, reflecting his incumbency advantages, stronger regional polling among lower-income and northern voters, and the Workers’ Party’s historical base in the state ahead of the October 4 vote. Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 25.5 percent as the main right-wing challenger, consistent with national surveys showing him 5–7 points behind Lula overall following the official campaign launch on August 16 and recent Quaest and Datafolha releases. Minor candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others register single-digit or lower probabilities, aligning with their limited state-level visibility and fragmented opposition support. Trader consensus prices these outcomes based on current polling trends, coalition dynamics, and the absence of major late shifts in Amapá-specific turnout or endorsements within the past month.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$7,087
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the clearest edge in Amapá first-round voting intentions at 64.5 percent implied probability, reflecting his incumbency advantages, stronger regional polling among lower-income and northern voters, and the Workers’ Party’s historical base in the state ahead of the October 4 vote. Flávio Bolsonaro trails at 25.5 percent as the main right-wing challenger, consistent with national surveys showing him 5–7 points behind Lula overall following the official campaign launch on August 16 and recent Quaest and Datafolha releases. Minor candidates including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others register single-digit or lower probabilities, aligning with their limited state-level visibility and fragmented opposition support. Trader consensus prices these outcomes based on current polling trends, coalition dynamics, and the absence of major late shifts in Amapá-specific turnout or endorsements within the past month.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$7,087
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Verwandte

icon for Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl in São Paulo die meisten Stimmen erhalten?

Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl in São Paulo die meisten Stimmen erhalten?

89%
Ja
icon for Wird Lula bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen in Pará erhalten?

Wird Lula bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen in Pará erhalten?

93%
Ja
icon for Wird Lula bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen in Sergipe bekommen?

Wird Lula bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen in Sergipe bekommen?

95%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Amapá" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 13 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Lula" mit 65%, gefolgt von „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 25%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 65¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 65% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Amapá" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 17, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Amapá" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 13 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Amapá" ist „Lula" mit 65%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 65% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 25%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 1. Platz in Amapá" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.