The Federal District Senate race for one of two seats remains tightly contested due to vote fragmentation among right-leaning candidates aligned with former President Jair Bolsonaro, including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Bia Kicis (PL), and others, alongside established contenders such as Leila do Vôlei (PDT) and Erika Kokay (PT). Recent candidate registrations and Michelle Bolsonaro’s formal announcement have kept polling averages and implied probabilities closely bunched, with no single name securing a decisive edge in surveys. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing highlights uncertainty ahead of the October 2026 vote, where turnout patterns, last-minute endorsements, and any shifts in right-wing coalition dynamics could produce separation among frontrunners.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGuto Felício dos Santos 44%
David Horn 44%
Erika Kokay 44%
Michelle Bolsonaro 44%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
Guto Felício dos Santos
44%
David Horn
44%
Erika Kokay
44%
Michelle Bolsonaro
44%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
44%
Sebastião Coelho
44%
Leila do Vôlei
44%
Marley
44%
Tiago
44%
Zanata
44%
Avenir Rosa
40%
Ronaldo Fonseca
40%
Bia Kicis
40%
Guto Felício dos Santos 44%
David Horn 44%
Erika Kokay 44%
Michelle Bolsonaro 44%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
Guto Felício dos Santos
$0 Vol.
44%
David Horn
$0 Vol.
44%
Erika Kokay
$0 Vol.
44%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$0 Vol.
44%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$0 Vol.
44%
Sebastião Coelho
$0 Vol.
44%
Leila do Vôlei
$0 Vol.
44%
Marley
$0 Vol.
44%
Tiago
$0 Vol.
44%
Zanata
$0 Vol.
44%
Avenir Rosa
$0 Vol.
40%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$0 Vol.
40%
Bia Kicis
$0 Vol.
40%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Federal District Senate race for one of two seats remains tightly contested due to vote fragmentation among right-leaning candidates aligned with former President Jair Bolsonaro, including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Bia Kicis (PL), and others, alongside established contenders such as Leila do Vôlei (PDT) and Erika Kokay (PT). Recent candidate registrations and Michelle Bolsonaro’s formal announcement have kept polling averages and implied probabilities closely bunched, with no single name securing a decisive edge in surveys. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing highlights uncertainty ahead of the October 2026 vote, where turnout patterns, last-minute endorsements, and any shifts in right-wing coalition dynamics could produce separation among frontrunners.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Federal District Senate race for one of two seats remains tightly contested due to vote fragmentation among right-leaning candidates aligned with former President Jair Bolsonaro, including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Bia Kicis (PL), and others, alongside established contenders such as Leila do Vôlei (PDT) and Erika Kokay (PT). Recent candidate registrations and Michelle Bolsonaro’s formal announcement have kept polling averages and implied probabilities closely bunched, with no single name securing a decisive edge in surveys. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing highlights uncertainty ahead of the October 2026 vote, where turnout patterns, last-minute endorsements, and any shifts in right-wing coalition dynamics could produce separation among frontrunners.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$0Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District Senate race for one of two seats remains tightly contested due to vote fragmentation among right-leaning candidates aligned with former President Jair Bolsonaro, including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Bia Kicis (PL), and others, alongside established contenders such as Leila do Vôlei (PDT) and Erika Kokay (PT). Recent candidate registrations and Michelle Bolsonaro’s formal announcement have kept polling averages and implied probabilities closely bunched, with no single name securing a decisive edge in surveys. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing highlights uncertainty ahead of the October 2026 vote, where turnout patterns, last-minute endorsements, and any shifts in right-wing coalition dynamics could produce separation among frontrunners.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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