Lula's commanding 96.5% implied probability of finishing first in Ceará reflects the state's consistent alignment with Workers' Party candidates in recent cycles, driven by strong voter support for federal social programs, regional economic transfers, and incumbency advantages ahead of the 2026 first round. Opposition figures remain fragmented, with no single challenger consolidating support in polling or local organizing that would alter this positioning. Historical turnout patterns in the Northeast further reinforce the current trader consensus. A major scandal, sharp economic reversal, or unexpected coalition realignment could still narrow the gap, though such shifts have not materialized in recent months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertLula 96.5%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.7%
Samara <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$17,612 Vol.
$17,612 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Samara
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Lula 96.5%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.7%
Samara <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$17,612 Vol.
$17,612 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Lula
$8,134 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,228 Vol.
2%
Samara
$714 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$919 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$765 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$755 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$755 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$625 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$815 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$736 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$701 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$764 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$702 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding 96.5% implied probability of finishing first in Ceará reflects the state's consistent alignment with Workers' Party candidates in recent cycles, driven by strong voter support for federal social programs, regional economic transfers, and incumbency advantages ahead of the 2026 first round. Opposition figures remain fragmented, with no single challenger consolidating support in polling or local organizing that would alter this positioning. Historical turnout patterns in the Northeast further reinforce the current trader consensus. A major scandal, sharp economic reversal, or unexpected coalition realignment could still narrow the gap, though such shifts have not materialized in recent months.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volumen
$17,612Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding 96.5% implied probability of finishing first in Ceará reflects the state's consistent alignment with Workers' Party candidates in recent cycles, driven by strong voter support for federal social programs, regional economic transfers, and incumbency advantages ahead of the 2026 first round. Opposition figures remain fragmented, with no single challenger consolidating support in polling or local organizing that would alter this positioning. Historical turnout patterns in the Northeast further reinforce the current trader consensus. A major scandal, sharp economic reversal, or unexpected coalition realignment could still narrow the gap, though such shifts have not materialized in recent months.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$17,612Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Lula's commanding 96.5% implied probability of finishing first in Ceará reflects the state's consistent alignment with Workers' Party candidates in recent cycles, driven by strong voter support for federal social programs, regional economic transfers, and incumbency advantages ahead of the 2026 first round. Opposition figures remain fragmented, with no single challenger consolidating support in polling or local organizing that would alter this positioning. Historical turnout patterns in the Northeast further reinforce the current trader consensus. A major scandal, sharp economic reversal, or unexpected coalition realignment could still narrow the gap, though such shifts have not materialized in recent months.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird Lula in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 die meisten Stimmen erhalten?
69%
Ja
Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl in São Paulo die meisten Stimmen erhalten?
95%
Ja
Wird Lula bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen in Pernambuco gewinnen?
98%
Ja
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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