Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) maintaining a clear lead for one Senate seat in Pernambuco, while the contest for the second vacancy remains fragmented among roughly a dozen registered candidates. Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho, Eduardo da Fonte (PP), and Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) cluster in the 11-20% range, with limited separation between them. Candidate lists were finalized in early August conventions, leaving little time before the October vote for any single contender to consolidate opposition support or benefit from alliances. This broad distribution of intentions, combined with undecided voters and the two-seat electoral system, sustains tight implied probabilities across multiple names for second place. Further surveys or coalition shifts before election day could produce clearer differentiation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertPaulo Rubem Santiago 44%
Samuel Timoteo 44%
Túlio Gadêlha 44%
Pastor Gilvan Costa 44%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
Paulo Rubem Santiago
44%
Samuel Timoteo
44%
Túlio Gadêlha
44%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
44%
Mariano Macedo
42%
Eduardo da Fonte
42%
Mendonça Filho
42%
Gorett Bitu
42%
Humberto Costa
41%
Mailson da Silva Neto
41%
Marília Arraes
40%
Carlos Sant'Anna
39%
Paulo Rubem Santiago 44%
Samuel Timoteo 44%
Túlio Gadêlha 44%
Pastor Gilvan Costa 44%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$0 Vol.
44%
Samuel Timoteo
$0 Vol.
44%
Túlio Gadêlha
$0 Vol.
44%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$0 Vol.
44%
Mariano Macedo
$0 Vol.
42%
Eduardo da Fonte
$0 Vol.
42%
Mendonça Filho
$0 Vol.
42%
Gorett Bitu
$0 Vol.
42%
Humberto Costa
$0 Vol.
41%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$0 Vol.
41%
Marília Arraes
$0 Vol.
40%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$0 Vol.
39%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) maintaining a clear lead for one Senate seat in Pernambuco, while the contest for the second vacancy remains fragmented among roughly a dozen registered candidates. Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho, Eduardo da Fonte (PP), and Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) cluster in the 11-20% range, with limited separation between them. Candidate lists were finalized in early August conventions, leaving little time before the October vote for any single contender to consolidate opposition support or benefit from alliances. This broad distribution of intentions, combined with undecided voters and the two-seat electoral system, sustains tight implied probabilities across multiple names for second place. Further surveys or coalition shifts before election day could produce clearer differentiation.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) maintaining a clear lead for one Senate seat in Pernambuco, while the contest for the second vacancy remains fragmented among roughly a dozen registered candidates. Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho, Eduardo da Fonte (PP), and Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) cluster in the 11-20% range, with limited separation between them. Candidate lists were finalized in early August conventions, leaving little time before the October vote for any single contender to consolidate opposition support or benefit from alliances. This broad distribution of intentions, combined with undecided voters and the two-seat electoral system, sustains tight implied probabilities across multiple names for second place. Further surveys or coalition shifts before election day could produce clearer differentiation.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$0Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data shows Marília Arraes (PDT) maintaining a clear lead for one Senate seat in Pernambuco, while the contest for the second vacancy remains fragmented among roughly a dozen registered candidates. Humberto Costa (PT), Mendonça Filho, Eduardo da Fonte (PP), and Túlio Gadêlha (PSD) cluster in the 11-20% range, with limited separation between them. Candidate lists were finalized in early August conventions, leaving little time before the October vote for any single contender to consolidate opposition support or benefit from alliances. This broad distribution of intentions, combined with undecided voters and the two-seat electoral system, sustains tight implied probabilities across multiple names for second place. Further surveys or coalition shifts before election day could produce clearer differentiation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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