Renan Santos secured fourth place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, trailing Flávio Bolsonaro, incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Augusto Cury according to tallies exceeding 99 percent of ballots. This outcome reflects Santos’s modest but consistent support among right-leaning and younger voters for the Mission Party ticket, which outpaced other minor candidates including Ronaldo Caiado. Traders have priced the market at full certainty for Santos because the vote distribution has stabilized with no remaining pathways for challengers to overtake his share. Late shifts remain theoretically possible only through widespread recount disputes or invalidated ballots, though official counts show no such developments.