**Liberals maintain a consistent 12- to 17-point national lead in 2026 polling averages, with support near 47% against roughly 31% for the Conservatives, reflecting voter preference solidified after the April 2025 election.** Mark Carney’s Liberals secured a majority through by-election wins and floor crossings, while current surveys show no reversal in Conservative fortunes despite regional strength in Alberta. Traders assign 96.4% probability against Conservatives flipping Liberal seats because repeated polls from firms including Liaison, Abacus, and Nanos demonstrate durable Liberal advantages in key battlegrounds like Ontario and Quebec, with no major catalyst—such as economic shocks or leadership shifts—yet emerging to alter the trajectory before the next scheduled vote. Late developments including scandals, sharp economic downturns, or Conservative organizational gains could still narrow gaps, though none appear imminent.