Traders assign a 97.6% probability that Iran will not conduct a nuclear test before 2027, reflecting sustained diplomatic pressure, IAEA monitoring, and the absence of verified weaponization steps in recent months. Primary drivers include ongoing negotiations tied to sanctions relief, technical constraints on enrichment and testing infrastructure, and regional deterrence calculations that favor ambiguity over overt escalation. The most recent verifiable diplomatic signals within the past 30 days center on continued IAEA access and multilateral statements urging restraint. Scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected parallel programs, sudden leadership changes altering risk tolerance, or rapid breakdown in talks that removes external restraints before the 2027 deadline.