US intelligence assessments released May 4 confirm Iran's weaponization timeline remains 9-12 months despite recent US and Israeli airstrikes inflicting only limited damage to enrichment facilities, bolstering trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027 at 91% "No." IAEA reports from February-March highlight continued 60% uranium enrichment but no verified diversion toward testable devices, with monitoring intact at unaffected sites. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations since 2025 show rising odds for a deal, though Iran resists concessions on its highly enriched uranium stockpile. Recent earthquakes near Tabriz sparked unconfirmed speculation of underground tests, but seismic data from the CTBTO detected no nuclear signatures. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and retaliation risks further constrain escalation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
$191,721 Vol.
$191,721 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$191,721 Vol.
$191,721 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released May 4 confirm Iran's weaponization timeline remains 9-12 months despite recent US and Israeli airstrikes inflicting only limited damage to enrichment facilities, bolstering trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027 at 91% "No." IAEA reports from February-March highlight continued 60% uranium enrichment but no verified diversion toward testable devices, with monitoring intact at unaffected sites. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations since 2025 show rising odds for a deal, though Iran resists concessions on its highly enriched uranium stockpile. Recent earthquakes near Tabriz sparked unconfirmed speculation of underground tests, but seismic data from the CTBTO detected no nuclear signatures. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and retaliation risks further constrain escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$191,721Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments released May 4 confirm Iran's weaponization timeline remains 9-12 months despite recent US and Israeli airstrikes inflicting only limited damage to enrichment facilities, bolstering trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027 at 91% "No." IAEA reports from February-March highlight continued 60% uranium enrichment but no verified diversion toward testable devices, with monitoring intact at unaffected sites. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations since 2025 show rising odds for a deal, though Iran resists concessions on its highly enriched uranium stockpile. Recent earthquakes near Tabriz sparked unconfirmed speculation of underground tests, but seismic data from the CTBTO detected no nuclear signatures. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and retaliation risks further constrain escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$191,721Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released May 4 confirm Iran's weaponization timeline remains 9-12 months despite recent US and Israeli airstrikes inflicting only limited damage to enrichment facilities, bolstering trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027 at 91% "No." IAEA reports from February-March highlight continued 60% uranium enrichment but no verified diversion toward testable devices, with monitoring intact at unaffected sites. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations since 2025 show rising odds for a deal, though Iran resists concessions on its highly enriched uranium stockpile. Recent earthquakes near Tabriz sparked unconfirmed speculation of underground tests, but seismic data from the CTBTO detected no nuclear signatures. Diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and retaliation risks further constrain escalation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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