The intense, nationally prominent Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District on May 19 drove the overwhelming trader consensus around 100-110k votes. President Trump's endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein against incumbent Thomas Massie, combined with record outside spending in the most expensive House primary on record, mobilized Republican voters across the 21-county district far above prior midterm primary benchmarks, roughly doubling the 2024 figure. Preliminary and near-final counts showed approximately 104k total ballots cast in the race, aligning precisely with the leading outcome bucket and leaving minimal room for revision upon certification. Factors that could still shift final tallies into adjacent ranges remain limited to minor adjustments in provisional or late-reported ballots from rural counties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKY-04 Republican Primary: Turnout
KY-04 Republican Primary: Turnout
100-110k 100.0%
<80k <1%
80-90k <1%
90-100k <1%
$51,302 Vol.
$51,302 Vol.
19. Mai 2026
<80k
No
80-90k
No
90-100k
No
100-110k
Yes
110-120k
No
120k+
No
100-110k 100.0%
<80k <1%
80-90k <1%
90-100k <1%
$51,302 Vol.
$51,302 Vol.
19. Mai 2026
<80k
$5,330 Vol.
No
80-90k
$4,342 Vol.
No
90-100k
$3,247 Vol.
No
100-110k
$15,845 Vol.
Yes
110-120k
$7,064 Vol.
No
120k+
$15,474 Vol.
No
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The intense, nationally prominent Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District on May 19 drove the overwhelming trader consensus around 100-110k votes. President Trump's endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein against incumbent Thomas Massie, combined with record outside spending in the most expensive House primary on record, mobilized Republican voters across the 21-county district far above prior midterm primary benchmarks, roughly doubling the 2024 figure. Preliminary and near-final counts showed approximately 104k total ballots cast in the race, aligning precisely with the leading outcome bucket and leaving minimal room for revision upon certification. Factors that could still shift final tallies into adjacent ranges remain limited to minor adjustments in provisional or late-reported ballots from rural counties.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Markt eröffnet: May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
Volumen
$51,302Enddatum
19. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The intense, nationally prominent Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District on May 19 drove the overwhelming trader consensus around 100-110k votes. President Trump's endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein against incumbent Thomas Massie, combined with record outside spending in the most expensive House primary on record, mobilized Republican voters across the 21-county district far above prior midterm primary benchmarks, roughly doubling the 2024 figure. Preliminary and near-final counts showed approximately 104k total ballots cast in the race, aligning precisely with the leading outcome bucket and leaving minimal room for revision upon certification. Factors that could still shift final tallies into adjacent ranges remain limited to minor adjustments in provisional or late-reported ballots from rural counties.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary election (the race’s total official contest votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official KY-04 Republican Primary results published by the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volumen
$51,302Enddatum
19. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 18, 2026, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
The intense, nationally prominent Republican primary contest in Kentucky's 4th Congressional District on May 19 drove the overwhelming trader consensus around 100-110k votes. President Trump's endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein against incumbent Thomas Massie, combined with record outside spending in the most expensive House primary on record, mobilized Republican voters across the 21-county district far above prior midterm primary benchmarks, roughly doubling the 2024 figure. Preliminary and near-final counts showed approximately 104k total ballots cast in the race, aligning precisely with the leading outcome bucket and leaving minimal room for revision upon certification. Factors that could still shift final tallies into adjacent ranges remain limited to minor adjustments in provisional or late-reported ballots from rural counties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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