The market-implied odds favoring a May 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C above the pre-industrial baseline reflect the dominant influence of long-term anthropogenic warming combined with the emerging El Niño signal now favored by NOAA and multi-model ensembles. Current equatorial Pacific conditions show neutral to weakly positive sea-surface temperatures, with subsurface heat content rising and an 82% chance of El Niño developing during May–July 2026. This timing adds modest additional warmth to the already elevated baseline set by recent record years, while model spreads and historical May variability keep lower or higher bins less probable. Updated seasonal outlooks from the World Meteorological Organization highlight near-global above-normal land temperatures for the May–July period, reinforcing trader consensus around this narrow central range ahead of official monthly releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,562 Vol.
$58,562 Vol.
10. Juni 2026
<1.10ºC
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 17%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,562 Vol.
$58,562 Vol.
10. Juni 2026
<1.10ºC
$23,927 Vol.
17%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 Vol.
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,772 Vol.
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,181 Vol.
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The market-implied odds favoring a May 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C above the pre-industrial baseline reflect the dominant influence of long-term anthropogenic warming combined with the emerging El Niño signal now favored by NOAA and multi-model ensembles. Current equatorial Pacific conditions show neutral to weakly positive sea-surface temperatures, with subsurface heat content rising and an 82% chance of El Niño developing during May–July 2026. This timing adds modest additional warmth to the already elevated baseline set by recent record years, while model spreads and historical May variability keep lower or higher bins less probable. Updated seasonal outlooks from the World Meteorological Organization highlight near-global above-normal land temperatures for the May–July period, reinforcing trader consensus around this narrow central range ahead of official monthly releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volumen
$58,562Enddatum
10. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The market-implied odds favoring a May 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C above the pre-industrial baseline reflect the dominant influence of long-term anthropogenic warming combined with the emerging El Niño signal now favored by NOAA and multi-model ensembles. Current equatorial Pacific conditions show neutral to weakly positive sea-surface temperatures, with subsurface heat content rising and an 82% chance of El Niño developing during May–July 2026. This timing adds modest additional warmth to the already elevated baseline set by recent record years, while model spreads and historical May variability keep lower or higher bins less probable. Updated seasonal outlooks from the World Meteorological Organization highlight near-global above-normal land temperatures for the May–July period, reinforcing trader consensus around this narrow central range ahead of official monthly releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$58,562Enddatum
10. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds favoring a May 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C above the pre-industrial baseline reflect the dominant influence of long-term anthropogenic warming combined with the emerging El Niño signal now favored by NOAA and multi-model ensembles. Current equatorial Pacific conditions show neutral to weakly positive sea-surface temperatures, with subsurface heat content rising and an 82% chance of El Niño developing during May–July 2026. This timing adds modest additional warmth to the already elevated baseline set by recent record years, while model spreads and historical May variability keep lower or higher bins less probable. Updated seasonal outlooks from the World Meteorological Organization highlight near-global above-normal land temperatures for the May–July period, reinforcing trader consensus around this narrow central range ahead of official monthly releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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