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icon for Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Economy·Makroindikatoren

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

icon for Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Economy·Makroindikatoren

Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?

Juli 30

Juli 30

-0,5-0,0 % 51%

0.5-1.0% 48%

1.5-2.0% 39%

1.0-1.5% 26%

Polymarket
NEU

-0,5-0,0 % 51%

0.5-1.0% 48%

1.5-2.0% 39%

1.0-1.5% 26%

Polymarket
NEU

<-0,5 %

$4 Vol.

25%

-0,5-0,0 %

$24 Vol.

28%

0.0-0.5%

$11 Vol.

46%

0.5-1.0%

$6 Vol.

28%

1.0-1.5%

$2 Vol.

26%

1.5-2.0%

$0 Vol.

39%

2.0-2.5%

$0 Vol.

11%

2.5%+

$0 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in Mexico's economy, highlighted by the 0.8% quarter-over-quarter GDP contraction in Q1 2026—sharper than the 0.5% consensus decline—has tempered trader expectations for Q2, pushing the leading 0.0-0.5% range to a 45.5% implied probability. High-frequency indicators show softening industrial production, manufacturing exports, and domestic demand amid U.S. trade uncertainty and moderating remittances. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts from the Bank of Mexico, IMF, and others cluster around 1.5-1.8%, supporting competitive pricing for the 1.5-2.0% bin at 38.5%, while lower ranges reflect base effects and potential policy easing. Monthly releases through June remain key swing factors that could shift these closely matched probabilities.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$47
Enddatum
30. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in Mexico's economy, highlighted by the 0.8% quarter-over-quarter GDP contraction in Q1 2026—sharper than the 0.5% consensus decline—has tempered trader expectations for Q2, pushing the leading 0.0-0.5% range to a 45.5% implied probability. High-frequency indicators show softening industrial production, manufacturing exports, and domestic demand amid U.S. trade uncertainty and moderating remittances. Full-year 2026 consensus forecasts from the Bank of Mexico, IMF, and others cluster around 1.5-1.8%, supporting competitive pricing for the 1.5-2.0% bin at 38.5%, while lower ranges reflect base effects and potential policy easing. Monthly releases through June remain key swing factors that could shift these closely matched probabilities.

This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$47
Enddatum
30. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 8 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „0.0-0.5%" mit 46%, gefolgt von „1.5-2.0%" mit 39%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 46¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 46% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?" ist „0.0-0.5%" mit 46%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 46% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „1.5-2.0%" mit 39%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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