**Ben-Gvir’s firm public refusal has solidified trader expectations that Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party will contest the October 27, 2026 Knesset election on separate lists.** Prime Minister Netanyahu issued repeated appeals in late August for the parties to reunite, warning that division risks wasting right-wing votes below the electoral threshold and echoing past splits that weakened the bloc. Smotrich signaled openness and explored alternatives such as ties to Ofer Winter or Moshe Feiglin, while polls showed a joint list could yield around eight seats versus six for Otzma alone and potential elimination for Religious Zionism. Ben-Gvir rejected the overtures outright, stating the decision is “final and absolute” with no meetings or negotiations possible; he cited internal polling showing a merger would cost his party three to four mandates and accused Netanyahu of seeking a weaker Otzma to enable a broader coalition including centrists. With the September 8 candidate roster deadline approaching and no signs of reversal, the recent impasse has driven the 93% implied probability on “No.”
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
20% Chance
NEU
NEU
8. Sep. 2026
Ja
20% Chance
NEU
NEU
8. Sep. 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Ben-Gvir’s firm public refusal has solidified trader expectations that Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party will contest the October 27, 2026 Knesset election on separate lists.**
Prime Minister Netanyahu issued repeated appeals in late August for the parties to reunite, warning that division risks wasting right-wing votes below the electoral threshold and echoing past splits that weakened the bloc. Smotrich signaled openness and explored alternatives such as ties to Ofer Winter or Moshe Feiglin, while polls showed a joint list could yield around eight seats versus six for Otzma alone and potential elimination for Religious Zionism. Ben-Gvir rejected the overtures outright, stating the decision is “final and absolute” with no meetings or negotiations possible; he cited internal polling showing a merger would cost his party three to four mandates and accused Netanyahu of seeking a weaker Otzma to enable a broader coalition including centrists.
With the September 8 candidate roster deadline approaching and no signs of reversal, the recent impasse has driven the 93% implied probability on “No.”
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET
Volumen
$2,138Enddatum
8. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Ben-Gvir’s firm public refusal has solidified trader expectations that Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party will contest the October 27, 2026 Knesset election on separate lists.**
Prime Minister Netanyahu issued repeated appeals in late August for the parties to reunite, warning that division risks wasting right-wing votes below the electoral threshold and echoing past splits that weakened the bloc. Smotrich signaled openness and explored alternatives such as ties to Ofer Winter or Moshe Feiglin, while polls showed a joint list could yield around eight seats versus six for Otzma alone and potential elimination for Religious Zionism. Ben-Gvir rejected the overtures outright, stating the decision is “final and absolute” with no meetings or negotiations possible; he cited internal polling showing a merger would cost his party three to four mandates and accused Netanyahu of seeking a weaker Otzma to enable a broader coalition including centrists.
With the September 8 candidate roster deadline approaching and no signs of reversal, the recent impasse has driven the 93% implied probability on “No.”
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volumen
$2,138Enddatum
8. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Ben-Gvir’s firm public refusal has solidified trader expectations that Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party will contest the October 27, 2026 Knesset election on separate lists.** Prime Minister Netanyahu issued repeated appeals in late August for the parties to reunite, warning that division risks wasting right-wing votes below the electoral threshold and echoing past splits that weakened the bloc. Smotrich signaled openness and explored alternatives such as ties to Ofer Winter or Moshe Feiglin, while polls showed a joint list could yield around eight seats versus six for Otzma alone and potential elimination for Religious Zionism. Ben-Gvir rejected the overtures outright, stating the decision is “final and absolute” with no meetings or negotiations possible; he cited internal polling showing a merger would cost his party three to four mandates and accused Netanyahu of seeking a weaker Otzma to enable a broader coalition including centrists. With the September 8 candidate roster deadline approaching and no signs of reversal, the recent impasse has driven the 93% implied probability on “No.”
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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